The Nexus between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Türkiye at the 100th Anniversary of the Republic: Rolling Window Causality Analysis with Historical Data

Abstract

This study aims to empirically examine the causality nexus between carbon emissions (CO2) and economic growth in Türkiye in the post-Republican period between 1923-2018. The main objective of the study is to shed light on Türkiye's sustainable development efforts from the past to the present by analyzing the nexus between carbon emissions and economic growth, taking into account the periodic factors in this period. In this way, the study aims both to learn from the experiences of the past and to support future policy decisions. According to the results of the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) causality test, there is bidirectional causality between the two variables. According to the results of Rolling Window Causality Analysis, there is a direct causality nexus between CO2 emissions and GDP in the sub-periods 1955-1959, 1974-1975, 1987-1989, 1993-1997 and 2008-2010, and between economic growth and carbon emissions in the sub-period 1981-1988. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the complex interaction between the environment and the economy in shaping the next 100 years of the Republic of Türkiye.