Escape from a potential well is a paradigm to understand critical events in chemical physics, celestial mechanics, structural mechanics, and ship dynamics, to name but a few. The consequences of escape could be desirable or undesirable depending on the specific problem at hand, however, the general question is how escape occurs and the effects of environmental noise on the escape. In this article, we answer the first question by discovering the phase space structures that lead to escape and the second question by investigating the effects of random forcing on these structures in the context of ship dynamics and capsize. The phase space structures that lead to escape are the tube manifolds associated to the rank-1 saddles in the conservative system. They are also robust in the sense of predicting high probability regions of escape even in the presence of random forcing.