The Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane

Pastusiak, Tadeusz

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-41834-6

Cited by 30 publications

(31 citation statements)

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“…Results of previous work of the Author [25,26] indicate systematic extension of time period of occurrence of lighter ice conditions on the NSR, including period favorable to ice-free navigation. It was determined [1,2,11,15], that during spring and summer period, when ice melts, vessels should set voyage route in zones with low ice concentration (40-60%), and if possible -in regions with very low ice concentration (10-30%) [21,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…As a rule, it is related to 10-18% of ice concentration, but in extreme cases it concerns limit of up to 35% of concentration. Therefore, this study will analyze time-space patterns of these ice concentration limits that determine ability to navigate particular groups of vessels with specified ice class [25]. It will therefore be a concentration limit of 10-20% (for vessels without ice strengthening), concentration limit 24-30% (for vessels with low ice classes L4), concentration limit 46-50% (for vessels with medium ice classes L3, L2, L1 and UL), concentration limit 60-68% (for ships with high ULA ice class) and concentration limit 70-80% (above this concentration, navigation is possible only for icebreakers and ships with a high ice class navigating with support of icebreakers).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From point of view of the use of ice map files in decision support systems [21,23,25] both vector georeferenced files issued by the NIC (type MIZ and S-411 standard) seem to be the most useful due to possibility of direct implementation in computer software like GPS one [10]. Raster format files are more prone to errors and inaccuracies in position and ice concentration readings due to large share of human factor.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route

Pastusiak¹

2019

Annual of Navigation

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Main problem for scheduling vessel transit voyages through the Northern Sea Route is the difficulty in predicting distribution of ice boundaries in regions that cannot be overcome by individual ice classes of vessels. Scheduling of voyage is related to speed that vessels can develop and moment of time when vessels will be able to commence and complete passage safely through areas that are main obstacle and are blocking longest transit passage through the Northern Sea Route. This applies to voyages carried out by vessels navigating on their own and with support of icebreakers. Additional problem is lack of consistency of content of maps of ice cover, which can be used for vessels voyage planning through areas where ice cover occurs. Results of this research on influence of uncertain information related with time window of conditions favorable for navigation of vessels of different ice classes on schedule of theirs voyage on example of summer navigation season 2017 are presented in this work.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route

Pastusiak¹

2019

Annual of Navigation

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“…The problem of the need to assess the possibility of vessels to pass through the ice-covered areas and, at the same time, the necessity of planning theirs route resulted from the possibility of use on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) the vessels with relatively low ice class (Pastusiak 2016. Despite favorable conditions for navigation of vessels with low ice classes still have dangerous fast changes of ice conditions, involving periodic blocking of individual sections of the NSR by drifting ice fields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principles of Vessel Route Planning in Ice on the Northern Sea Route

Pastusiak

2016

TransNav

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“…Although the summertime sea ice extent has rapidly decreased on an interannual timescale, a substantial area of sea ice still remains in critical stretches of the NSR, such as the ESS in early summer (June-July). Since precise information regarding SIT and its near-future condition is crucial for icebreaker operations (Tan et al, 2013;Pastusiak, 2016), it is important to clarify the medium-range (3 to 10 days lead time) predictability of summertime SIT in the Arctic Ocean.…”

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confidence: 99%

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June-July) based on the TOPAZ4 iceocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014)(2015)(2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times ( > 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an iceblocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT (∼ 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.

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The Northern Sea Route as a Shipping Lane

Cited by 30 publications

References 0 publications

Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route

Scheduling Transit Voyages of Vessels of Various Ice Classes Across the Northern Sea Route

Principles of Vessel Route Planning in Ice on the Northern Sea Route

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

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