The observed El Niño-induced droughts from April to May 2023 increase the risk of famine in West Africa

Abstract

The return of El Niño in 2023 brought record global temperatures, an increase in forest fires, floods, heat waves, and intense and severe droughts. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the impact of El Niño on rainfall patterns during the planting season and the potential consequences for agricultural productivity in West Africa. The study used the ERA5 dataset and the SPEI index dataset of the Global Drought Crop Monitoring and performed a thorough spatio-temporal analysis and anomaly calculation of precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. We uncover El Niño footprints characterized by early rains in March, high temperatures and humidity, and low rainfall in the middle of the planting season (April to May) compared to 2022. Farmers in West Africa usually expect rainfall in early April to start the agricultural season. This shift in rainfall patterns can have a serious impact on agricultural activities and increase vulnerability to severe famine in the region. Rather than relying solely on rainfall, we recommend the use of advanced irrigation techniques and the development of drought-resistant crops to combat the effects of El Niño in the future.