The observed global warming record: What does it tell us?

Wigley, T. M. L.; Jones, Phil; Raper, S. C. B.

doi:10.1073/pnas.94.16.8314

Cited by 65 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…This work extends the two previous studies Wigley et al, 1997) by including also tropospheric ozone, and also by considering new development in the general understanding of many of the forcing mechanisms. Whereas the two previous studies included calculations of the evolution of the global mean-surface temperature, we do not o!er such estimates in this study.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

“…In general the evolution of the total forcing developed in this paper resembles the evolution described by Hansen et al (1993) and Wigley et al (1997). We have estimated an increase in the period 1970}1990 which is somewhat weaker than in the Wigley et al (1997) paper.…”

Section: Total Forcingmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…We have estimated an increase in the period 1970}1990 which is somewhat weaker than in the Wigley et al (1997) paper. Our calculations also di!er somewhat from the two previous papers in the estimate of a decline in the 1945}1970 period.…”

Section: Total Forcingmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…For the radiative forcing due to sulfate, we have chosen to follow assumptions made in Wigley et al (1997). The evolution of the sulfate aerosol forcing (Fig.…”

Section: Direct Ewectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since their paper, there has been new work in many of these "elds, in particular regarding the radiative forcing due to tropospheric aerosols. Wigley et al (1997) provided another evolution of the radiative forcing including well-mixed greenhouse gases, direct and indirect e!ects of tropospheric aerosols as well as changes in solar irradiance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate

Myhre

Myhre²,

Stordal

2001

Atmospheric Environment

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Section: Total Forcingmentioning

confidence: 51%

Section: Total Forcingmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…For the radiative forcing due to sulfate, we have chosen to follow assumptions made in Wigley et al (1997). The evolution of the sulfate aerosol forcing (Fig.…”

Section: Direct Ewectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate

Myhre

Myhre²,

Stordal

2001

Atmospheric Environment

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A method for solar radiation error correction of temperature measured in a reinforced plastic screen for climatic data collection

Yang

Liu

Dai

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Due to solar radiation effect, air temperature sensor inside a reinforced plastic screen may produce a measurement error that is 0.8 °C or higher. To improve air temperature observation accuracy and correct historical temperature of weather stations, a radiation error correction method is proposed. The correction method is based on a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method and a neural network method. The CFD method is implemented to obtain the radiation error of a reinforced plastic screen under various environmental conditions. Then, a radiation error correction equation is obtained by fitting the CFD results using the neural network method. To verify the performance of the radiation error correction equation, a reinforced plastic screen and an aspirated temperature measurement platform are characterized in the same environment to conduct the intercomparison. The aspirated temperature measurement platform serves as an air temperature reference. The average radiation error given by four sunny days intercomparison experiments is 0.85 °C. The corresponding average radiation error given by the correction equation is 0.83 °C. The mean absolute error, the root mean square error and the correlation coefficient between the radiation errors given by the correction equation and the radiation errors given by the experiments with the reference platform are 0.099, 0.109 and 0.713 °C, respectively.

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"Apples and Oranges": On comparing simulated historic near‐surface temperature changes with observations

Jones

2020

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Simulated historic near-surface air temperature variations are often compared with observations of land air temperatures blended with sea surface temperatures. This study investigates claims that this is not a "true like-with-like" comparison, which may cause small biases in simulated twentieth century temperature changes, with implications for different climate attribution and projection studies. A more appropriate analysis, it is claimed, should use simulated sea surface temperatures blended with land air temperatures; an apparent discrepancy with observed trends is then reduced. As the temperature of the uppermost level in a model's ocean is used to represent simulated sea surface temperatures, that models have inconsistent ways of representing land, and that simulations have differing sea ice coverages, the claim of an idealised analysis approach is challenged. An examination of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, compared with an observational dataset of near-surface temperatures, suggests there is a bias in simulated historic trends when upper-ocean temperatures are used instead of marine air temperatures, but this bias is small compared to other model and observational uncertainties and the impact of analysis choices. The results indicate that it is generally appropriate to use global near-surface air temperature diagnostics to compare simulated historic climate change with observed temperature changes. Alternative model diagnostics are not necessarily superior to those used in standard approaches, and the emphasis of model and observational discrepancies may be based on overconfident reasoning. K E Y W O R D S climate change, climate models, observed temperatures, CMIP5 1 INTRODUCTION The assessing of past and future changes in climate has a long history (Le Treut et al., 2007; Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013), which has been dominated by the use of surface temperatures, as measurement records are particularly long, have reasonable global coverages, and arguably have the most important impact on our lives. Multiple datasets indicate that global mean near-surface temperatures have increased by about 1 K since the end This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

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The observed global warming record: What does it tell us?

Cited by 65 publications

References 35 publications

Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate

Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate

A method for solar radiation error correction of temperature measured in a reinforced plastic screen for climatic data collection

"Apples and Oranges": On comparing simulated historic near‐surface temperature changes with observations

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