The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy – An exceptional event and its modeling

Cavaleri, Luigi; Bajo, Marco; Barbariol, Francesco; Bastianini, Mauro; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bertotti, Luciana; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Davolio, Silvio; Ferrarin, Christian; Magnusson, Linus; Papa, Alvise; Pezzutto, Paolo; Pomaro, Angela; Umgiesser, Georg

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2019.102178

Cited by 90 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The October 29, 2018, storm hit Italy in different areas. Cavaleri et al (2019) provide a general description of the storm, focusing on the Adriatic Sea and Venice. Following a low pressure sys- Sea in November, reflecting an anomalous general atmospheric depression over the basin.…”

Section: The 2018 Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions

Cavaleri¹,

Bajo²,

Barbariol³

et al. 2020

Oceanog

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Venice has long suffered the effects of rising sea levels. The last two stormy seasons brought a series of events that peaked in the great flood of November 2019. Here, we analyze that November storm, showing (1) how different factors, by themselves unexceptional, gave rise to one of the worst floods in Venice's history, and (2) that the characteristics of this event made the storm difficult to forecast accurately. We stress the need to take into account probabilistic information available from ensemble forecasts, and discuss this within the framework of Venice's present situation. At the same time, using the 2019 Venice flooding as an example that may apply to many similar coastal locations elsewhere, we look at the future, pointing out that flooding problems can only worsen in a rapidly changing natural world.

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Section: The 2018 Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions

Cavaleri¹,

Bajo²,

Barbariol³

et al. 2020

Oceanog

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“…More recently, on 29 October 2018 at 13 UTC, the fifth highest historical level was recorded in Venice (since 1872, starting year of the measurements) with a maximum sea level of 1.56 m ZMPS. A second peak (1.48 m ZMPS) followed this maximum, with an estimated storm surge of 1.30 m, that "luckily" was not in phase with the astronomical tide so that it was not reached a much more severe flooding Cavaleri et al [30]. Very recently, on 12 November 2019 at 22.50 UTC, the water level reached 1.87 m ZMPS, the second highest value ever measured, due to an "unlucky" combination of an astronomical tidal peak with a severe storm surge generated by a strong wind (up to 30 m/s) and a sudden pressure drop down to 987 h Pa.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 98%

Flooding of Piazza San Marco (Venice): Physical Model Tests to Evaluate the Overtopping Discharge

Ruol

Favaretto

Volpato

et al. 2020

Water

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This paper aims at evaluating the wave overtopping discharge over the pavement of “Piazza S. Marco” (Venice) in order to select the best option to mitigate the risk of flooding of the Piazza and to protect the monuments and historic buildings, e.g., the “Basilica S. Marco”. In fact, the MO.S.E. (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) system is designed to keep the water level below a certain value, for the safety of the lagoon, but it does not guarantee the defence of the Piazza, where flooding is still possible, being its pavement locally much lower than the maximum expected water level. To completely defend the Piazza, specific additional works are planned to prevent the back-flow through the natural drainage system (now the primary pathway) or by filtration or by overtopping. This paper investigates on the overtopping mechanism, under conditions compatible with a fully operational MO.S.E. system, through 2-D experiments. The pavement of the Piazza is gently sloping towards the masonry quay which, in some parts is formed by 5 descending steps, and in some other parts, is just a vertical wall. Close to the “Marciana” Library, a critical part is present, with a slightly lower crest freeboard. In total, three cross-sections were examined in the 36 m long wave flume of the Padova University. The test programme includes 10 irregular wave attacks and three different water levels. The test results differ considerably from the results of the available formulas, since the investigated cross-sections by far exceed their range of applicability. The presence of the steps affects only the reflection coefficient rather than the overtopping discharges. In general, if the waves incident to the Piazza are higher than 40 cm, which is a possible scenario, some other adaptation works must be considered, such as the pavement rise, temporary barriers or the reduction of the waves impacting the quay through, for instance, floating breakwaters.

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“…This is further confirmed by the hindcast of the 1966 storm, the worst in documented history, whose peak, in terms of both the damage and the model value, has been estimated at well above 6 m (the tower was not there at the time). The question is open, with Cavaleri et al [33] suggesting the possibility that indeed, although apparently similar, these three storms do belong to a different family of events. This moves the problem to the meteorological side, but leaves it open.…”

Section: The Engineeristic Point Of Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, things may not be so simple. Cavaleri et al [33] have recently reported about the statistics of one of the longest recorded H s time series in the world, spanning the 1979-to-present period [34]. The series has been, and is, recorded at the ISMAR oceanographic tower [35], 15 km offshore from the Venice coastline at the upper end of the Adriatic Sea, East of Italy ( Figure 5).…”

Section: The Engineeristic Point Of Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind–Wave Modeling: Where We Are, Where to Go

Cavaleri

Barbariol

Benetazzo

2020

JMSE

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We perform a critical analysis of the present approach in wave modeling and of the related results. While acknowledging the good quality of the best present forecasts, we point out the limitations that appear when we focus on the corresponding spectra. Apart from the meteorological input, these are traced back to the spectral approach at the base of the present operational models, and the consequent approximations involved in properly modeling the various physical processes at work. Future alternatives are discussed. We then focus our attention on how, given the situation, to deal today with the estimate of the maximum wave heights, both in the long term and for a specific situation. For this, and within the above limits, a more precise evaluation of the wave spectrum is shown to be a mandatory condition.The contemporary, and complementary, theories by Phillips [3] and Miles [4] on wave generation soon followed. On the basis of the Phillips framing of the problem, Hasselmann [5] quantified the interactions and conservative exchange of energy among the spectral components. White-capping, the energy loss by wave crests breaking in deep water, had to wait 17 years after the formulation of the input function before Hasselmann [6], in connection with the JONSWAP (JOint North Sea WAve Project) experiments and report [7], proposed an empirical, but at least quantified and spectrum-dependent, usable expression suitable for practical applications. The adult age of wave modeling was finally reached in 1988 [8] with the reduced Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA) parameterization [9] of the non-linear interactions, and the consequent formulation of the first third-generation model WAM. The overall situation was well pictured in the so-called WAM book by Komen et al. [10]. Other models followed on the same route: WAVEWATCH [11], SWAN [12], and the one by the Danish Hydraulic Institute.Today we live in a slow evolution of the 1994 situation. Improvements have been made on some aspects of the source functions, computers are faster, and we have gone to progressively higher resolutions. However, although with a rather crude statement, we can say that most of our improvements in the last three decades have been associated with the parallel improvements in the definition and accuracy of the driving wind fields. Indeed, during the last 30 years the only basic conceptual improvement has been the acknowledgement by Janssen [13] of the two-way interaction with the atmosphere, and the consequent need to use a coupled model. Including the interaction with ocean currents, the process is still on its way.

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The October 29, 2018 storm in Northern Italy – An exceptional event and its modeling

Cited by 90 publications

References 24 publications

The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions

The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions

Flooding of Piazza San Marco (Venice): Physical Model Tests to Evaluate the Overtopping Discharge

Wind–Wave Modeling: Where We Are, Where to Go

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