The optimal time-scale of Standardized Precipitation Index for early identifying summer maize drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, China

Zhang, Yuanda; Wang, Peijuan; Chen, Yuye; Yang, Jianying; Wu, Dingrong; Ying, Ma; Huo, Zhiguo; Liu, Shuxian

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101350

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…According to Srinivasan et al [84], the SPI has been widely used as a tool for drought monitoring and prediction and is a reliable indicator of groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions. Similarly, Zhang et al [85] reported significant correlations between the groundwater levels and SPI at different time scales in the North China Plain, with longer-term SPI values having a stronger influence on groundwater levels than shorter-term values. In the analysis of the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI) using linear regression, significant correlations are observed for the accumulation periods of 18, 24, and 48 months, surpassing the threshold correlation coefficient of 0.6.…”

Section: Relationships Between Meteorological and Groundwater Drought...mentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Relationships Between Meteorological and Groundwater Drought...mentioning

confidence: 86%

“…The utilization of drought indices such as the SPI, SPEI, and SGI can assist water managers in identifying drought-prone areas and developing appropriate strategies for mitigation. Additionally, Zhang et al [85] suggested that SPI-based groundwater recharge models can enhance water management strategies in regions where groundwater serves as a primary water source.…”

Section: Drought Evolution In Ziz Watershedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability of Water Resources to Drought Risk in Southeastern Morocco: Case Study of Ziz Basin

Ben Salem,

Karmaoui

et al. 2023

Water

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Water resources in Morocco have been severely influenced by climate change and prolonged drought, particularly in the pre-Saharan zone. The Ziz watershed faces increasing pressure due to the high demographic growth, increased demand for water, excessive groundwater consumption, and investment in agriculture. But how long will water resources withstand these problems? This study, therefore, enters into the context of the assessment of water resources and estimates their vulnerability using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI), on data from the Ziz watershed from 1986 to 2016. Additionally, climate projections were utilized to simulate the future SGI from 2017 to 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) was employed to evaluate changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) during the period of 1992–2020, and to generate future scenarios for land class inflows and outflows from 2017 to 2100, in comparison to the reference period of 1986–2016, thereby incorporating the SSP climate scenarios. The results indicate that the Ziz Basin experienced significant drought events in 1986–1989 and 2000–2003. The SPI and SPEI significantly correlated with SGI in some monitoring wells and with specific accumulation periods. The LULC analysis showed an increase in agricultural land and urban land and a decrease in barren or sparse land. Climate data analysis and scenarios predict that under SSP5-8.5, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 2.61 °C and 2.93 °C, respectively, and precipitation will decrease by 30% over this century. This substantial shift in climate conditions is reflected in the decline in SGIs, especially in the long term under SSP5-8.5. Water availability will decrease during this century under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, as reflected in reduced land class inflows and increased outflows. These findings emphasize the need for stakeholders to implement integrated water governance for sustainability in the Ziz watershed.

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Section: Relationships Between Meteorological and Groundwater Drought...mentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Relationships Between Meteorological and Groundwater Drought...mentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Drought Evolution In Ziz Watershedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability of Water Resources to Drought Risk in Southeastern Morocco: Case Study of Ziz Basin

Ben Salem,

Karmaoui

et al. 2023

Water

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“…The model for identifying heat or non-heat occurrence to single-season rice based on daily T max performed excellently at each phenological stage, with relative IF values and AUC values greater than 10 and 0.930, respectively. This kind of historical disaster-based indicators construction method has been widely used in coping with disaster indexes for agro-meteorological disasters, such as heat [25], drought [37,56] and frost [57,58], avoiding the effects of subjective factors and the limitations of experimental regions.…”

Section: Determined Thresholds For Different Phenological Stagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic Identification of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Jiang,

Huo,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Agronomy

Self Cite

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As global warming continues, heat stress events are expected to increase and negatively affect rice production. Spatiotemporal changes in single-season rice exposure to heat stress were explored along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China during 1971–2020 based on created heat thresholds in different phenological stages, derived from comparison of historical heat records for single-season rice and agro-meteorological data. The feature importance (IF) provided by the Random Forest model was used to modulate the relationship between threshold accumulated temperature and yield reduction rate caused by heat stress. In addition, critical temperature thresholds at different phenological stages were determined by combining Overall Accuracy and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. According to historical disaster records, the heat stress occurred before the reproductive phase (i.e., the tillering–jointing stage) and ended in the filling stage. Critical temperature thresholds of Tmax at tillering–jointing, booting, flowering and filling were quantified as 36, 35, 35 and 38 °C, with higher IF values of 13.14, 10.93, 17.15 and 13.15, respectively. The respective values of Overall Accuracy and the areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.85 and 0.930, implying that each threshold performed excellently in identifying heat occurrence. Based on the determined critical thresholds, accumulated harmful temperature (Tcum), number of heat days (HD), first heat date (FHD) and last heat date (LHD) were presented to characterize heat exposure. It was clear that Tcum and HD exhibited a north-to-south increasing trend from 1971 to 2020, with the obvious increasing occurrence in most parts of the study region through the period of 2010 to 2020. FHD occurred earlier in most stations except the northeast parts, while LHD ended later in southern MLRYR. Exploring heat critical thresholds at different phenological stages highlighted in this study can help decision-makers monitor and evaluate heat exposure to single-season rice in MLRYR and further develop mitigation strategies to ensure rice production security.

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“…Scholars researching drought risk assessment during the maize growing stage have faced significant difficulties in accurately defining the time range for maize growth and development. Frequently, they use a definite time range which does not take into account differences in maize growth processes across different regions (Li et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2023aZhang et al, , 2023b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment for early maize growth in Northeast China based on a reconstructed phenological dataset

Wang,

Li,

et al. 2024

J Agronomy Crop Science

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Drought is one of the meteorological disasters to which maize is most vulnerable during its seedling stage in Northeast China. The absence of phenological data impedes the precise evaluation of the likelihood of drought during this phase. In response to these issues, this study develops a phenology model and reconstructing the data. Furthermore, it effectively assessed drought risk at the site scale by utilizing drought indicators. Using reconstructed phenological data from 217 sites from 1981 to 2015, we analysed the duration and trends of each phenological period and assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of drought frequency at each growth stage. The study demonstrated that the average date ranges for the sowing, emergence, three‐leaf, and seven‐leaf stages annually were 115–138 days, 130–151 days, 135–160 days, and 150–180 days, respectively. Additionally, there was a significant trend towards earlier dates in all phenological stages. Our research reveals notable fluctuations in drought frequency during various growth stages of early maize in Northeast China. Particularly, the period from the three‐leaf to the seven‐leaf stages emerges as the most drought‐prone, while the initial emergence to three‐leaf stage also shows considerable vulnerability. On average, the frequency of drought events during the critical three‐ to seven‐leaf stage stands at 35%. This average is surpassed in regions like Heilongjiang, northwest Jilin, northern Inner Mongolia, and southwest Liaoning, indicating a heightened risk in these areas. The early maize growth stage drought types are mainly light and moderate drought, with the three‐leaf to seven‐leaf stage, and Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, as the key stages and regions of concern, respectively. Identifying the principal types of drought and their occurrence in distinct regions and growth stages is pivotal for averting and reducing disasters.

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The optimal time-scale of Standardized Precipitation Index for early identifying summer maize drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, China

Cited by 7 publications

References 48 publications

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Drought Risk in Southeastern Morocco: Case Study of Ziz Basin

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Drought Risk in Southeastern Morocco: Case Study of Ziz Basin

Characteristic Identification of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Drought risk assessment for early maize growth in Northeast China based on a reconstructed phenological dataset

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