The ‘Oumuamua Encounter: How Modern Cosmology Handled Its First Black Swan

Abstract

The first macroscopic object observed to have come from outside the solar system slipped back out of sight in early 2018. 1I/2017 U1 ‘Oumuamua offered a unique opportunity to test understanding of gravity, planetary formation and galactic structure against a true outlier, and astronomical teams from around the globe rushed to study it. Observations lasted several months and generated a tsunami of scientific (and popular) literature. The brief window available to study ‘Oumuamua created crisis-like conditions, and this paper makes a comparative study of techniques used by cosmologists against those used by financial economists in qualitatively similar situations where data conflict with the current paradigm. Analyses of ‘Oumuamua were marked by adherence to existing paradigms and techniques and by confidence in results from self and others. Some, though, over-reached by turning uncertain findings into graphic, detailed depictions of ‘Oumuamua and making unsubstantiated suggestions, including that it was an alien investigator. Using a specific instance to test cosmology’s research strategy against approaches used by economics researchers in comparable circumstances is an example of reverse econophysics that highlights the benefits of an extra-disciplinary lens.

Additional Solar System Gravitational Anomalies

“…As the first interstellar object identified in the solar system, 'Oumuamua, was the subject of intense scrutiny by a dozen astronomical teams over several months after late 2017 [33,34]. One of its most prominent features was NGA of 5.01 × 10 −6 m•s −2 /R 2 , which reflects a reduction in solar gravitation of about 0.1 percent [8].…”