The Panc 3 Score Predicting Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Background : About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice. Objective : To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome. Methods : Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification. Results : Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. Conclusion : The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

Maximizing the Use of Scoring Systems in the Prediction of Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis

“…This is in agreement with many prior studies that have indicated that both the RAC and the DBC strongly predict length of hospital stay better than OAC without any significant differences between them [9,10,22]. Further, while little work has been done to assess the predictive capacity of BISAP and PANC 3 on LOS, both systems have been shown to have predictive capacity at identifying severe AP as defined by RAC and DBC [4,17,19]; so it logically follows that their predictive capacity at identifying the length of stay should be similar to RAC and DBC. We suggest that BISAP and PANC3, which can be obtained within the initial 24 h of a patient's stay, may be useful to offer the early prediction of length of stay and RAC and DBC can offer further information later in the course of the disease.…”

“…However, it exhibits low sensitivity for severe pancreatitis [17]. Similarly, while Panc 3 and HAPS have been shown to be accurate at predicting severe AP with high specificities, they also exhibit low sensitivities [18][19][20]. Finally, while SNNAP is simple and effective at predicting readmission within a thirty-day period, it has limited utility outside of this [21].…”

Role of PANC-3 score to predict severe acute pancreatitis

“…In study by Beduschi et al in 2016 pleural effusion had sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 91.7%, PPV of 60%, NPV of 91.7%. 17 In a prospective study by Rathnakar et al in 2017 patients with SAP showed abnormal X-ray findings suggestive of pleural effusion in 18 (78.3%). 18,19 As compared to abnormal findings of 9 (15.3%) patients among 59 patients with mild attack (Chi-square test showed p<0.001).…”

Utilidad de la escala PANC 3 como predictor de severidad en pacientes con pancreatitis aguda

“…En el grupo de pacientes estudiados, encontramos promedios de edades similares, siendo el sexo masculino el más encontrado en PA severa y mostrando ser estadísticamente signficativo (Tabla 1), este hallazgo coincide con lo publicado por Beduschi et al (23) , en Brasil en el año 2016, donde el sexo se asocia de una manera significativa con PA severa. Con respecto a la edad Jimenez et al (24) en el año 2015 en Perú y Tabla 1.…”