The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values

Alpert, Pinhas; Ben-Gai, T.; Baharad, Anat; Benjamini, Yoav; Yekutieli, Daniel; Colacino, M.; Diodato, L.; Ramis, C.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Michaelides, Silas; Manes, A.

doi:10.1029/2001gl013554

Cited by 496 publications

(435 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Another possibility not explored here is that the HIRHAM model's changes for this period simply do not adhere to the assumptions of the theoretical model, such as constant shape parameter ␣. Such behavior may also be occurring in scattered regions where observations have shown increases in relatively intense precipitation while overall precipitation has been relatively constant (Easterling et al 2000;Alpert et al 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Gutowski

Takle

Kozak

et al. 2007

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation, and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation, irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization.Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum's adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution, when the total precipitation or number of precipitation days changes, there is a single transition between precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate, such as average precipitation, frequency of rain days, and the shape parameter of the precipitation's gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the nonnormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation for which the theory of statistical extremes more likely provides the appropriate description. ABSTRACT Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation, and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation, irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization.Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum's adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution, when the total precipitation or number of p...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Gutowski

Takle

Kozak

et al. 2007

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…In the case of rainfall amount per rainy day (ADR), a positive trend of 0.3 mm/day per decade is detected on an annual scale, which has a significance of 95%, although this is possibly due to the heat-island effect of the neighbouring city of Barcelona. Alpert et al (2002) use the rainfall intensity for different categories or classes in the Mediterranean area and find that, in Spain, the trends for the extreme classes (light and heavy rains) are positive, whereas the central classes (moderate rains) show significant decreases. The results of Goodess and Jones (2002) for the Iberian Peninsula show a tendency towards more, less-intensive rain across much of Iberia, with a tendency towards days of increasingly intensive rain along the southeastern Mediterranean coast.…”

Section: Time Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variability of the daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), 1950–2000

Lana

Martínez

Serra

et al. 2004

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Spatial and temporal patterns in the daily rainfall regime of Catalonia (northeastern Spain) recorded for the 1950-2000 period are analysed from several points of view, including the irregularity of the time series in terms of entropy, the Mann-Kendall test for time trends, a principal component analysis (PCA), an average linkage (AL) clustering algorithm and, finally, a power spectrum analysis, which includes a comparison of white-noise and Markovian red-noise hypotheses. The analyses are based on three monthly variables derived from the amounts recorded on a daily basis: the average daily rainfall and the standard deviation of the daily rainfall for each month, together with the corresponding coefficient of variation. The joint spatial-temporal variability is manifested by the irregularity index, which is characterized by relevant values in all cases and gradients from the north (Pyrenees and Pre-Pyrenees mountain ranges) to the south (Ebro Valley) and to the Mediterranean coast. The interpretation of the factor scores derived from the PCA and of the clusters obtained from the AL algorithm also describes the complex spatial distribution of the daily rainfall regime, given that the effects of atmospheric circulation patterns on rainfall regimes are conditioned by the complex orography of Catalonia and its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. The factor loadings associated with the PCA also suggest a distinction between hot, cold and mild seasons. Finally, it is worth noting that monthly series are usually accompanied by white background noise and, in a few cases, signs of Markovian behaviour and some significant periodicities, which are generally of less than 10 months and which change from one cluster to another.

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“…As shown above, there have been many studies on extreme precipitation, especially for very heavy precipitation events [1,10,15,16]. Meanwhile, studies on light precipitation over China also have made substantial achievements and have found a significant decrease of light precipitation in the last several decades [17,18].…”

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confidence: 99%

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors. precipitation spectra, global warming, spatial scale, extreme precipitation, composite analysis Citation:Wu F T, Fu C B. Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions.

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The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values

Cited by 496 publications

References 26 publications

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Spatial and temporal variability of the daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), 1950–2000

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

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