The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences

Wigley, T. M. L.

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5

Cited by 44 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…14 Tanaka and O’Neill 15 demonstrate that net-zero aggregate CO 2 -e emissions based on GWP 100 (which is often assumed to be the definition of the balance of sources and sinks described in the Paris Agreement) are not essential to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Wigley 16 posits that the balance of sources and sinks in Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement is scientifically inconsistent with the temperature goals in Article 2.1. These papers show how moving from the temperature goals articulated in the Paris Agreement to emissions targets and profiles is not something that is currently well-handled by conventional carbon accounting; they also show that the area is receiving renewed scrutiny as countries, firms and sectoral bodies try to work out mitigation strategies of their own.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants

et al. 2019

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Anthropogenic global warming at a given time is largely determined by the cumulative total emissions (or stock) of long-lived climate pollutants (LLCPs), predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), and the emission rates (or flow) of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) immediately prior to that time. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reporting of greenhouse gas emissions has been standardised in terms of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) emissions using Global Warming Potentials (GWP) over 100-years, but the conventional usage of GWP does not adequately capture the different behaviours of LLCPs and SLCPs, or their impact on global mean surface temperature. An alternative usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, overcomes this problem by equating an increase in the emission rate of an SLCP with a one-off “pulse” emission of CO2. We show that this approach, while an improvement on the conventional usage, slightly underestimates the impact of recent increases in SLCP emissions on current rates of warming because the climate does not respond instantaneously to radiative forcing. We resolve this with a modification of the GWP* definition, which incorporates a term for each of the short-timescale and long-timescale climate responses to changes in radiative forcing. The amended version allows “CO2-warming-equivalent” (CO2-we) emissions to be calculated directly from reported emissions. Thus SLCPs can be incorporated directly into carbon budgets consistent with long-term temperature goals, because every unit of CO2-we emitted generates approximately the same amount of warming, whether it is emitted as a SLCP or a LLCP. This is not the case for conventionally derived CO2-e.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants

et al. 2019

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“…This pace Environmental Management and Sustainable Development ISSN 2164-7682 2018 rapidly hinders the overall ability to achieve atmospheric CO 2 level stabilization; in particular, stabilization at 450 ppm (e.g. Wigley, 2018) now seems impossible.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Mauna Loa Data Set Showsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth Systems Thinking: Global Consumerism, Climate Change, and the Spiritual Value of the Earth

Bothun¹

2018

EMSD

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In this paper we consider the root cause of climate change to be the industrial waste heat by product of increasing global consumption. The embodied energy associated with the conversion of Earth’s resources into consumer goods has largely been driven by fossil fuel based energy. Using available data, we show how a) the rate of annual CO2 emissions to the atmosphere is increasing, b) the land+sea temperature anomaly index is increasing, particularly the last 3 years, c) the rate of heat addition to the world’s oceans is also accelerating as this is in direct response to a globally increasing consumption per capita. In short, all of our human induced rates related to consumption are accelerating with increasingly severe consequences to the Earth system that maintains us. This is occurring amidst the reality that humans are in a necessary physical partnership with nature. Despite this, many human cultures have pursued dominance over the Earth’s resources. This dominance is asserted by the mechanical philosophy of Descartes. Under this world view, the Earth is just a (soul-less) machine and man is distinct from nature and therefore entitled to dominate it; the Earth has no spiritual value. So this gives us license to dig up the planet to create the escalating distribution of products to global consumers and this is exactly what can be verified from the data. We refer to this as the business as usual trajectory. To correct this course trajectory, we propose two avenues: a) extend the concept and legality of the Public Trust Doctrine to all of Nature’s resources so that current generations have an obligation to ensure the future generations can same similar access to these resources, b) adopt a systems thinking approach that prioritizes human equity, dignity, environmental justice and environmental health over escalating global GDP. In short, global justice should be our priority, not global profit. From the systems thinking viewpoint, the Earth is not a market commodity subject to resource exhaustion, it is rather a sacred equilibrium system for the welfare of all.

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“…Energy supply, economic development, sustainable environment are the main drivers of national energy policies in any country of the world today. Greenhouse emissions from fossil fuels have caused a long term and irreversible damage to the environment leading to global warming and climate change [1]. To reduce the negative impacts of fossil energy, integration of renewable energy systems has been increasing in both number and capacity.…”

Section: [1] Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of Hydrogen Production from Pepper Waste Gasification

Güngör¹,

Akyürek²,

Akyüz³

2019

El-Cezeri Fen Ve Mühendislik Dergisi

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Gasification is a promising clean energy technology for hydrogen production and sustainable waste management. Biomass residues have great potential to produce renewable hydrogen. In this study, the potential of production of hydrogen from pepper residues was determined via a modeling study of air/steam gasification system. The input carbon of the feedstock was assumed to be fully gasified in the numerical model calculations performed for the downdraft gasifier system. Air to fuel ratio (A/F) and steam to fuel (S/F) ratio are taken as 0.05 because of the high oxygen content in pepper waste. The temperature of the gasifier is 877 °C for the developed mathematical model. The modeling study results revealed high hydrogen content in the producer gas derived from pepper waste gasification which has obtained as 49.08 %.

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The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences

Cited by 44 publications

References 34 publications

Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants

Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants

Earth Systems Thinking: Global Consumerism, Climate Change, and the Spiritual Value of the Earth

Potential of Hydrogen Production from Pepper Waste Gasification

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