The past of predicting the future: A review of the multidisciplinary history of affective forecasting

Abstract

Affective forecasting refers to the ability to predict future emotions, a skill that is essential to making decisions on a daily basis. Studies of the concept have determined that individuals are often inaccurate in making such affective forecasts. However, the mechanisms of these errors are not yet clear. In order to better understand why affective forecasting errors occur, this article seeks to trace the theoretical roots of this theory with a focus on its multidisciplinary history. The roots of affective forecasting lie mainly in economics, with early claims positing that utility (i.e. satisfaction) played a role in decision-making. Furthermore, the philosopher Jeremy Bentham’s descriptions of utilitarianism played a major role in our understanding of whether to define utility as a hedonic quality. The birth of behavioural economics resulted in a paradigm shift, introducing the concept of cognitive biases as influences on the accuracy of predicted utility. Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson, the earliest researchers of affective forecasting errors, have proceeded with the concept of the accuracy of predicted affective utility to conduct experiments that seek to determine why our predictions of future affect are inaccurate and how such errors play a role in our decision-making.

The use of multilevel emotion regulation strategies in the context of critical public events: the more the better?

“…This reciprocal relationship raises the question of why people continue to use this strategy after experiencing negative feelings following its use. It may be explained by individuals’ motives for regulating emotions and affective forecasting errors, the ability to predict future emotions ( Pilin, 2020 ). Avoidance of negative emotions was both consistent with the hedonic motive and utility motive ( Tamir et al, 2007 ), but individuals may have a false expectation of its effect, which leads them to use experiential avoidance again, resulting in increased negative emotions ( Akbari et al, 2022 ).…”

Negative (but not positive) affective episodic future thinking enhances proactive behavior in 5-year-old children.

“…First, affective forecasting denotes the prediction of the valence, intensity, and duration of upcoming affects, whereas affective EFT is a mental simulation of an upcoming affective experience that is embedded in several other contextual details of the future event. Second, the form of affective EFT is specified to be episodic, whereas affective forecasting can involve episodic and semantic aspects and thus is less specific (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003; for a review see Pilin, 2021).…”