The Path of Least Resistance: Projections of Social Inequalities as a Result of Climate Change in the United States

Abstract

Environmental inequality and environmental racism are well-documented in the United States (U.S). Unlike typical approaches where sociologists investigate environmental inequality as it exists in the present, climate change hazards are known to compound over time, worsening in the future. Although the current demographic characteristics of the U.S. are known, here we account for the anticipated demographic changes likely to occur this century that could substantially compound climate inequality in the U.S. We use sea-level rise as an example of compounding environmental risk to uncover the magnitude of future inequalities. Specifically, we analyze how climate change may amplify inequalities in the future by disproportionately impacting presently vulnerable groups (e.g., by race, sex, and age). We find that communities of color and the elderly will face intensified impacts of sea-level rise by the end of the century. These processes of environmental inequality formation would go undetected using current, rather than projected, demographic data. Our results suggest climate change will continue to develop as a source of inequality this century and beyond, transmitting inequality across time and saddling future generations with environmental and social disadvantage. Our results, therefore, represent an important new approach to predict inequality formation in the distant future.