The pattern of climate change around the Windward Passage

Jury, Mark R.

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2658-3

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 47 publications

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“…Although the effects of these atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation point to the potential for drought to affect the insular Caribbean, few studies have focused on drought hazards. Recently, we have seen important work being done by the Caribbean Regional Climate Center in forecasting drought events in the region (http://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/caribbean-climate-outlook-newsletter/), as well some studies exploring long‐term trends and interannual climate variability of central and eastern Caribbean islands (Jury, 2019; Jury and Bernard, 2020), as well as decadal variation in Central America dry‐spells (Hidalgo et al ., 2019). However, drought is still considered as one of the neglected climate hazard in the insular Caribbean when compared to the amount of studies focusing on hazards such as hurricanes (Gamble, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean–atmosphere variability and drought in the insular Caribbean

Moraes

Mote

Seymour

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The insular Caribbean experiences numerous climate and environmental hazards, including but not limited to hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and drought. While some hazards are well explored in scientific literature, drought is considered one of the neglected hazards because of the lack of studies focusing on its causes and effects. This study identifies the spatial distribution of seasonal drought in insular Caribbean from 1950 to 2017, and its relationship with eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). It brings a new perspective over the region by dividing the Caribbean into Greater Antilles and Bahamas (GA), and the Lesser Antilles (LA) to compare the role of those three teleconnection patterns on drought events over larger versus smaller islands. We used an existing high‐resolution drought atlas (4 km) based on monthly estimates of the self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Results indicate that there is a drying trend in all seasonal‐average scPDSI for both the GA and the LA, but more intense and frequent drought events occur in the LA. The LA is also the region with more widespread drought events, registering 12 years when the mid‐summer dry spell (MSD; July–August) had drought ≥80% of the area, while the GA registered only 2 years of MSD drought that extensive. The peak season AMM had the strongest positive correlation with GA and LA drought during April–November, while NAO was slightly stronger correlated with GA than with LA from July–November. For ENSO, CP El Niño years related stronger with drought in the LA from December–July, while the relationship between the two types of ENSO and the GA was not statistically significant. This effort aims to improve drought forecasts to help the region to better prepare for the prediction of seasonal droughts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean–atmosphere variability and drought in the insular Caribbean

Moraes

Mote

Seymour

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Mechanical behavior and optimization of multi-objective reliability-based design with simultaneous multiple response for a portal-type drilling derrick on fixed platforms

Liu,

Zhou

et al. 2025

Ocean Engineering

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Winter Climate of Northeastern Dominican Republic and Cash Crop Production

Jury

2023

Climate

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The winter climate of the northeastern Dominican Republic features steady rainfall, which sustains cash crop production. Using a representative season, December 2016–February 2017, the mesoscale climate is characterized by high-resolution reanalysis, satellite measurements and local observations, and statistical analyses of time series from an index area of 18.8–19.6° N, 70.4–69.6° W in the Cibao Valley, where cacao and coffee are grown. Winter rainfall depends on strong trade winds that push shallow stratiform convections over 100 km inland, where nocturnal drainage flows induce orographic uplift. Interannual climate variability is studied in the context of cacao and coffee production in the years 1976–2019. Lag correlations demonstrate that higher yields follow a wet autumn, a windy winter with cool sea temperatures, and a dry spring. Changes in high-value agricultural production in the northeastern Dominican Republic may be anticipated by the climatic determinants uncovered here.

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The pattern of climate change around the Windward Passage

Cited by 4 publications

References 47 publications

Ocean–atmosphere variability and drought in the insular Caribbean

Ocean–atmosphere variability and drought in the insular Caribbean

Mechanical behavior and optimization of multi-objective reliability-based design with simultaneous multiple response for a portal-type drilling derrick on fixed platforms

Winter Climate of Northeastern Dominican Republic and Cash Crop Production

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