The Peak of the Oil Age – Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

Aleklett, K.; Höök, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Söderbergh, Bengt

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.021

Cited by 286 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…5 Mb d −1 ) has to come on stream every year just to keep the present output constant [42]. This implies that nearly five new Saudi Arabias would be needed by 2030 just to offset the decline in existing production [43].…”

Section: (B) Decline Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the dominance of larger fields in total regional production, the regional depletion rates are even lower in reality. Aleklett et al [43] estimate that the typical regional depletion rates of RRRs are of the order of 2-5%, and argue that projections of future global oil production by the IEA [10] are based upon unrealistic assumptions about depletion rates that are not explicitly discussed. Miller [44] agrees with the findings of Aleklett et al [43] and notes the persistent optimism of the IEA projections.…”

Section: (D) Depletion Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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Section: (B) Decline Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: (D) Depletion Rate Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…There is an increase in demand for petroleum and its allied products due to the rapid increase in the worlds' population even though the worlds' oil production has reached its peak [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Online estimation of wax deposition thickness in single-phase sub-sea pipelines based on acoustic chemometrics: A feasibility study

Halstensen

Arvoh

Amundsen

et al. 2013

Fuel

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Wax deposition in sub-sea oil producing pipelines is a concern to the oil producing companies. The deposition of wax in pipelines can cause serious economic implications if not monitored and controlled. Several researchers have developed models and investigated the deposition of wax in crude oil pipelines. As of today, there is no off the shelf instrument available for reliable online estimation of the wax deposition thickness in sub-sea pipelines.Acoustic chemometrics was applied to investigate the potential for online estimation of wax deposition thickness in sub-sea pipelines. This feasibility study was carried out as a so called piggy back on experiments performed at Statoil research centre in Porsgrunn, Norway with real crude oil or waxy gas condensate. The first investigations focussed on the repeatability of the acoustic chemometric technique followed by online prediction of the wax deposition thickness in a single-phase oil flow pipeline. A partial least squares regression model was calibrated and validated with a totally independent data set. The calibrated model had a root mean squared error of prediction of 0.28 mm with a final wax deposition thickness of 3.36 mm, a slope of 0.91 and R 2 of 0.83 which were satisfactory results. The effect of varying oil flow rates on the wax deposition thickness was also investigated. The preliminary results showed the need for further investigations based on a robust experimental design and sample  Corresponding author: e-mail: maths.halstensen@hit.no, Tel: +47 35575187, Telefax: +47 35575001 3 pre-processing. The general conclusion that can be drawn from this feasibility study was that the potential of adapting the acoustic chemometric technique for online estimation of the wax deposition thickness exist and must be further investigated.

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“…The longer the residence time better separation is achieved, however a shorter residence time and a highly efficient separation is desired with respect to production rate. Research into optimizing the various stages in the refining of petroleum and its allied products has increased since the world's oil production has reached its peak [1]. Even though there has been considerable increment in the development of marginal oil wells due to the increase in price of crude oil on the international market, the demand of petroleum products far exceeds the supply.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of gas/liquid and oil/water interface levels in an oil/water/gas separator based on pressure measurements and regression modelling

Arvoh

Skeie

Halstensen

2013

Separation and Purification Technology

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Gravity separators are widely used for separation of gas/oil/water/sand from both offshore and onshore oil production facilities. Estimation of the gas/liquid and oil/water interface levels in gravity separators have been a concern since these parameters are important for reliable operation. Most of the instruments on the market today do not provide reliable measurements of both gas/liquid and oil/water interface levels. The few instruments that do provide reliable measurements are however based on radioactive principles. Nevertheless these radioactive instruments possess a strong health, safety and environmental risk. An alternative inexpensive, environmentally friendly, accurate and cost effective way for gas/liquid and oil/water interface level estimation based on pressure measurement is presented. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) for gas/liquid and oil/water interface level estimation from traversing a pressure sensor based on partial least square regression (PLS-R) were 14.5 mm and 17.7 mm respectively. A comparison of results from models based on PLS-R and ordinary least square regression (OLS-R) techniques proved that the RMSEP from the PLS-R technique was better in estimating the oil/water interface level but in the case of gas/liquid interface level estimation the OLS-R technique was slightly better. It was concluded that the PLS-R technique provided a better overall result and is recommended  Corresponding author: e-mail: benjamin.k.arvoh@hit.no, Tel: +47 35575134, Telefax: +47 35575001 3 when pressure measurements in combination with multivariate data analysis is applied for gas/liquid and oil/water interface level estimations in gravity separators.

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The Peak of the Oil Age – Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

Cited by 286 publications

References 11 publications

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Online estimation of wax deposition thickness in single-phase sub-sea pipelines based on acoustic chemometrics: A feasibility study

Estimation of gas/liquid and oil/water interface levels in an oil/water/gas separator based on pressure measurements and regression modelling

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