The peculiarities of cross-correlation between two secondary precursors – radon and magnetic field variations, induced by tectonic activity

Rusov, Vitalii Danilovich; Maksymchuk, V. Yu.; Ilić, R.; Pavlovych, V. M.; Бахмутов, В. Г.; Saranuk, D. N.; Vaschenko, V. M.; Skvarč, J.; Hanžič, L.; Kosenko, S. I.

doi:10.33275/1727-7485.4-5.2006.538

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…V.D. Rusov et al in [47] use a cross correlation between radon and magnetic field. The common element is the temperature on which the radon concentration depends, but which also has a local piezoelectric effect that modifies the magnetic and telluric fields.…”

Section: Oef Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

et al. 2020

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This study analyzes the possibility to use geophysical and geochemical parameters in an OEF (Operational Earthquake Forecasting) application correlated with short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship. Tectonic stress over the limits of rock elasticity generates earthquakes, but it is possible that the emission of gases increases as a result of the breaking process. The question is how reliable is the emission of radon-222 and Carbon Dioxide (CO2), with effects on air ionization and aerosol concentration, in an OEF application? The first step is to select the seismic area (in our study this is the Vrancea area characterized by deep earthquakes at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains), then determine the daily and seasonal evolution of the forecast parameters, their deviations from the normal level, the short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship and finally to correlate the data with recorded seismic events. The results of anomaly detection, effect evaluation and data analysis alert the beneficiaries specialized in emergency situations (Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, organizations involved in managing special events). Standard methods such as the standard deviation from the mean value, time gradient, cross correlation, and linear regression are customized for the geological specificity of the area under investigation. For detection we use the short-time-average through long-time-average trigger (STA/LTA) method on time-integral data and the daily–seasonal variation of parameters is correlated with atmospheric conditions to avoid false decisions. The probability and epistemic uncertainty of the gas emissions resulting from this study, in addition to other precursor factors such as air ionization, time between earthquakes, temperature in the borehole, telluric currents, and Gutenberg Richter “a-b” parameters, act as inputs into a logical decision tree, indicating the possibility of implementing an OEF application for the Vrancea area. This study is novel in its analysis of the Vrancea area and performs a seismic forecasting procedure in a new form compared to the known ones.

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Section: Oef Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

et al. 2020

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“…Of the various diagnostic precursory phenomena of earthquakes, electromagnetic field variations and chemical processes are classified as secondary precursors (Rusov et al, 2006). Anomalous behaviors or responses of animals or plants are tertiary precursors (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, http://www.hinet.bosai.go.jp/about_earthquake/part1.…”

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confidence: 99%