The Perfect Storm: How to Prepare against Climate Risk and Disaster Shocks in the Time of COVID-19

Mahul, Olivier; Signer, Benedikt Lukas

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.023

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For governments, this also underlines that government balance sheets are absorbing a large part of the financial impact of compound shocks, well beyond the direct impacts often considered within current disaster risk financing strategies, such as emergency response, social protection, and reconstruction of public assets. 10 Implicit contingent liabilities from shocks like financial crises, natural disasters, and pandemics can create some of the largest fiscal risks to government balance sheets; 16 we demonstrate there that, in reality, such shocks cannot be considered in isolation.…”

Section: Linking Fiscal To Financial Sector Resiliencementioning

confidence: 82%

“…9 Ensuring financial preparedness of governments for shocks is critical both to reduce the impact of crises on government balance sheets (including public debt) and to ensure finance is available in emergencies to facilitate speedy recovery across society. 10 This focus is timely given the massive fiscal impact of COVID-19. The perspective aims to help catalyze future research and also inform the active debate within many governments post-COVID on how to integrate such risks more explicitly into government financial planning and preparedness and strengthen resilience.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: What we know (and don't know)

2021

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Section: Linking Fiscal To Financial Sector Resiliencementioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: What we know (and don't know)

2021

Self Cite

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“…Fiji’s cyclone season extends from November to April and is characterised by high and variable rainfall influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles ( Mangubhai et al, 2019 ). On 8 April 2020, Category 4 tropical Cyclone Harold passed through Fiji damaging over 2000 homes and causing extensive agricultural and infrastructure damage totaling US$22.6 million -->( OCHA, 2020 ; Mahul and Signer, 2020 ). With wind speeds of 120 km per hour, over 6000 people sought refuge at 197 Evaluation Centers despite social distancing restrictions in place.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Politics of vulnerability: Impacts of COVID-19 and Cyclone Harold on Indo-Fijians engaged in small-scale fisheries

Mangubhai¹,

Nand²,

Reddy³

et al. 2021

Environmental Science & Policy

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The global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the shortcomings of our health, social, and economic systems. While responding to the health crisis, governments are scrambling to understand and address the knock-on economic effects from market disruptions, and respond to other major disturbances (e.g. natural disasters). We conducted 61 key informant interviews with Indo-Fijian small-scale fisheries (SSF) actors (i.e. fishers, boat owners (that may or may not fish), crew members, and traders) in May 2020, two months after Fiji got its first case of COVID-19 and a month after Cyclone Harold hit the country. We examined how these SSF groups whose access to resources depends on their ability to navigate existing social relations of power, have lived through, experienced, and responded to the two stresses. We found the main impact of COVID-19 on SSF actors was the reduction in sales of fish (73.8 % of respondents) likely a result of reduction in local consumption and/or the loss of tourism markets. Loss of purchasing power meant almost a fifth of Indo-Fijian SSF actors interviewed (comprising 44.4 % of crew members, 16.4 % fishers, 11.5 % boat owners, 8.3 % traders) were unable to obtain sufficient food to meet their families’ daily needs. Many of these SSF actors do not have access to social security or similar safety nets leaving them vulnerable to the current crisis as well as to other shocks and changes. Furthermore, social inequities and power relations surrounding access to fisheries resources and government aid contributed to their vulnerability to economic stresses from COVID-19 and a severe cyclone. An understanding of early impacts of COVID-19 on SSF through an intersectional lens can assist decision-makers to quickly mobilise assistance to help people who are most vulnerable, and avoid widening inequities among social groups.

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“…Tropical cyclone Harold hit Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and Solomon Islands as a Category 5 event between 2 and 9 April 2020.27 people lost their lives to Tropical Cyclone Harold, while many more were injured (Mahul and Signer, 2020). More than 159,000 people were affected by the cyclone in Vanuatu.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclone Harold Vanuatu 2-9 April 2020mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

et al. 2022

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Landslides triggered by extreme rainfall can be devastating, resulting in loss of life, property, and infrastructure. Landslide forecasting systems provide an opportunity to build awareness of potential hazards and ultimately take preemptive measures. There is currently a dearth of forecasting systems that provide regional or global coverage, but these systems can offer important situational awareness in data-sparse, ungauged, or large-scale catchments. A near global, primarily satellite-based system called the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) provides near real-time estimates of potential landslide hazard and exposure around the world. In this work, a precipitation forecast module is introduced into LHASA to complement the existing LHASA framework and provide an estimate of landslide hazard up to 3 days in advance at 1 km resolution. The model-based Goddard Earth Observing System-Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) precipitation forecast product is used as the forcing input for the model in place of the satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission product. Soil moisture and snow depth from the GEOS-FP assimilated product are also incorporated. The study period January 2020–January 2021 is used to test the model performance against the LHASA near real-time estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Validation of the model is carried out using a collection of rainfall-triggered landslide inventories from around the world as case studies to demonstrate the potential utility and limitations of this system. The rescaling of the GEOS-FP precipitation product is a critical step in incorporating the forecasted precipitation data within LHASA-Forecast (LHASA-F). Combining different streams of forecasted data within the LHASA-F framework shows promise, particularly for larger events at the 1- and 2-days lead time for events. Results indicate that for the case studies evaluated, the LHASA-F is generally able to resolve major landslide events triggered by extreme rainfall, such as from tropical cyclones. The analysis shows that landslide forecast outputs may be represented differently depending on the user’s needs. This framework serves as a first milestone in providing a global predictive view of landslide hazard.

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The Perfect Storm: How to Prepare against Climate Risk and Disaster Shocks in the Time of COVID-19

Cited by 12 publications

References 3 publications

Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: What we know (and don't know)

Managing the financial risks of climate change and pandemics: What we know (and don't know)

Politics of vulnerability: Impacts of COVID-19 and Cyclone Harold on Indo-Fijians engaged in small-scale fisheries

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

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