The phenology of the subnivium

Thompson, Kimberly L.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Porter, Warren P.; Pauli, Jonathan N.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac670

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…; Appendix ) with measured soil temperatures (Thompson et al. ; Appendix ). Sites were in three latitudinal bands (north, middle, and south).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To validate the microclimate model's simulations of soil temperatures under snowpack, we compared simulated soil surface temperatures for winter 2016-2017 at nine sites across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Upper Michigan ( Fig. 1; Appendix S2) with measured soil temperatures (Thompson et al 2018;Appendix S2). Sites were in three latitudinal bands (north, middle, and south).…”

Section: Microclimate Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Snow cover mediates air temperature effects on soil temperatures (Zhang , Thompson et al. ), and normal annual snowfall generally increases from south to north, although it declines in the far west (western Minnesota; Andresen et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1) is characterized by low (<0°C) winter air temperatures, particularly in the northwest (Andresen et al 2014). Snow cover mediates air temperature effects on soil temperatures (Zhang 2005, Thompson et al 2018, and normal annual snowfall generally increases from south to north, although it declines in the far west (western Minnesota; Andresen et al 2014). The Great Lakes also have an important effect by creating downwind (south and east) lake effect regions with both milder winter air temperatures and persistent, deep snow cover (Andresen et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the distribution of niche space and risk for a freeze‐tolerant ectotherm, Lithobates sylvaticus

et al. 2019

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Many animals depend on stable below‐the‐snow (subnivium) conditions to survive winter in seasonally cold regions. Freeze‐tolerant ectotherms may experience increased ice content and/or energy expenditure in suboptimal subnivium conditions, with implications for overwinter survival and body reserves available for spring reproduction. We used a novel mechanistic modeling approach to explore effects of winter climate on the microclimate conditions, energy expenditure, and ice dynamics of the freeze‐tolerant, subnivium‐dwelling wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Basin region of the United States. We hypothesized that (1) frogs would experience the greatest energy cost to survive winter in southern regions of our study area, where air temperatures are warmer and shallower snow could allow for increased numbers of freeze–thaw cycles, and (2) frogs would be most vulnerable to lethal freezing in the cold, dry northwest portion of our study region. We found that total winter energy expenditure changed little with latitude because the effect of warmer soil temperatures (higher metabolic rates) to the south was offset by a shorter winter duration. Energy expenditures were greatest in the snowbelts of the Great Lakes, characterized by more persistent snow cover and relatively warm soil temperatures. In contrast, highest ice contents occurred in the northwest of the study region where air temperatures were coldest and snow was shallow. Thus, it appears that wood frogs experience a trade‐off between risk of lethal ice content and extensive use of body reserves across geographic space. Simulations showed that interpopulation differences in burrow depth and cryoprotectant concentration can influence risk of lethal ice content and overuse of body reserves prior to spring breeding, and those risks vary in relation to winter climate. Our mechanistic modeling approach is a novel tool for predicting risk and shifting niche space for cold‐adapted and subnivium‐dependent species.

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“…; Appendix ) with measured soil temperatures (Thompson et al. ; Appendix ). Sites were in three latitudinal bands (north, middle, and south).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Microclimate Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the distribution of niche space and risk for a freeze‐tolerant ectotherm, Lithobates sylvaticus

et al. 2019

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“…bioclimatic envelope modelling, bioclimatic variables, climate change, growth forms, land surface temperature, microclimate, mountains, soil temperature, species distribution modelling Moreover, many organisms (particularly small-stature plants, certain types of insects and soil microbes) experience temperatures at ground or sub-surface level, which can differ greatly from ambient air temperatures that are usually measured at 2 m above the soil surface (Aalto et al, 2018;Körner & Hiltbrunner, 2018;Poorter et al, 2016). Especially in high-latitude and high-elevation regions, snow cover, for example, acts as an insulator, thereby strongly decoupling soil and air temperatures (Pauli, Zuckerberg, Whiteman, & Porter, 2013;Poorter et al, 2016;Thompson, Zuckerberg, Porter, & Pauli, 2018), and biophysical processes owing to vegetation cover may also decouple upper atmospheric conditions from boundary layer conditions (Geiger, 1950).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing temperature data sources for use in species distribution models: From in‐situ logging to remote sensing

Lembrechts

Lenoir

Roth

et al. 2019

Global Ecol Biogeogr

118

124

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Aim Although species distribution models (SDMs) traditionally link species occurrences to free‐air temperature data at coarse spatio‐temporal resolution, the distribution of organisms might instead be driven by temperatures more proximal to their habitats. Several solutions are currently available, such as downscaled or interpolated coarse‐grained free‐air temperatures, satellite‐measured land surface temperatures (LST) or in‐situ‐measured soil temperatures. A comprehensive comparison of temperature data sources and their performance in SDMs is, however, currently lacking. Location Northern Scandinavia. Time period 1970–2017. Major taxa studied Higher plants. Methods We evaluated different sources of temperature data (WorldClim, CHELSA, MODIS, E‐OBS, topoclimate and soil temperature from miniature data loggers), differing in spatial resolution (from 1″ to 0.1°), measurement focus (free‐air, ground‐surface or soil temperature) and temporal extent (year‐long versus long‐term averages), and used them to fit SDMs for 50 plant species with different growth forms in a high‐latitudinal mountain region. Results Differences between these temperature data sources originating from measurement focus and temporal extent overshadow the effects of temporal climatic differences and spatio‐temporal resolution, with elevational lapse rates ranging from −0.6°C per 100 m for long‐term free‐air temperature data to −0.2°C per 100 m for in‐situ soil temperatures. Most importantly, we found that the performance of the temperature data in SDMs depended on the growth forms of species. The use of in‐situ soil temperatures improved the explanatory power of our SDMs (R2 on average +16%), especially for forbs and graminoids (R2 +24 and +21% on average, respectively) compared with the other data sources. Main conclusions We suggest that future studies using SDMs should use the temperature dataset that best reflects the ecology of the species, rather than automatically using coarse‐grained data from WorldClim or CHELSA.

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Habitat and climatic associations of climate‐sensitive species along a southern range boundary

Wilson

Cousins

Etter

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change and habitat loss are recognized as important drivers of shifts in wildlife species' geographic distributions. While often considered independently, there is considerable overlap between these drivers, and understanding how they contribute to range shifts can predict future species assemblages and inform effective management. Our objective was to evaluate the impacts of habitat, climatic, and anthropogenic effects on the distributions of climate-sensitive vertebrates along a southern range boundary in Northern Michigan, USA. We combined multiple sources of occurrence data, including harvest and citizen-science data, then used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to determine habitat and climatic associations for four climate-sensitive vertebrate species (American marten [Martes americana], snowshoe hare [Lepus americanus], ruffed grouse [Bonasa umbellus] and moose [Alces alces]). We used total basal area of at-risk forest types to represent habitat, and temperature and winter habitat indices to represent climate. Marten associated with upland spruce-fir and lowland riparian forest types, hares with lowland conifer and aspen-birch, grouse with lowland riparian hardwoods, and moose with upland spruce-fir. Species differed in climatic drivers with hares positively associated with cooler annual temperatures, moose with cooler summer temperatures and grouse with colder winter temperatures. Contrary to expectations, temperature variables outperformed winter habitat indices. Model performance varied greatly among species, as did predicted distributions along the southern edge of the Northwoods region. As multiple species were associated with lowland riparian and upland spruce-fir habitats, these results provide potential for efficient prioritization of habitat management. Both direct and indirect effects from climate change are likely to impact the distribution of climate-sensitive species in the future and the use of multiple data types and sources in the modelling of species distributions can result in more accurate predictions resulting in improved management at policy-relevant scales.

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The phenology of the subnivium

Cited by 24 publications

References 52 publications

Modeling the distribution of niche space and risk for a freeze‐tolerant ectotherm, Lithobates sylvaticus

Modeling the distribution of niche space and risk for a freeze‐tolerant ectotherm, Lithobates sylvaticus

Comparing temperature data sources for use in species distribution models: From in‐situ logging to remote sensing

Habitat and climatic associations of climate‐sensitive species along a southern range boundary

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