The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum

Abstract

How do people power movements succeed when modest proportions of the population participate? We propose that the effects of social movements increase as they gain momentum. We approximate a simple law drawn from physics: momentum equals mass times velocity (p=mv). We propose that the momentum of dissent is a product of participation (mass) and the number of protest events in a week (velocity). We test this simple physical proposition against panel data on the potential effects of movement momentum on irregular leader exit in African countries between 1990-2014 using a variety of estimation techniques. Our findings show that social movements potentially compensate for relatively modest popular support by concentrating their activities in time, thereby increasing their disruptive capacity. Crucially, these findings also provide a straightforward way for dissidents to easily quantify their coercive potential by assessing their participation rates and increased concentration of their activities in time.

“We Shall Overcome”: First-Person Plural Pronouns From Search Volume Data Predict Protest Mobilization Across the United States

“…For instance, future studies could leverage our approach to set up social mobilization forecasts, using time series analyses and the opportunity of real-time data update from search volume (weekly) for monitoring purposes. Like epidemiological models of pandemic dynamics, tools like these could be useful for policy makers and activists, since it is now possible to predict the likelihood that social movements succeed in bringing about political change using measures of "dissent momentum" (Frequency of Protests  Number of Attendees; see Chenoweth & Belgioioso, 2019). Moreover, dynamic models of collective behavior sometimes yield inaccurate predictions for lack of theoretical inputs from psychological theories (i.e., social identity theory; see Drury et al, 2020;Templeton et al, 2015).…”

‘We Shall Overcome’: First-Person Plural Pronouns from Search Volume Data Predict Collective Action across the United States

“…For instance, future studies could leverage our approach to set up social mobilization forecasts, using time series analyses and the opportunity of real-time data update from search volume (weekly) for monitoring purposes. Like epidemiological models of pandemic dynamics, tools like these could be useful for policy makers and activists, since it is now possible to predict the likelihood that social movements succeed in bringing about political change using measures of 'dissent momentum' (frequency of protests x number of attendees; see Chenoweth, & Belgioioso, 2019). Moreover, dynamic models of collective behaviour sometimes yield inaccurate predictions for lack of theoretical inputs from psychological theories (i.e., social identity theory; see Drury, 2020;Templeton, Drury, & Philippides, 2015).…”

Vom Protest- zum Quarantänejahr: Neue Arenen der Konfliktaushandlung

“…Diese Ritualisierung bietet Vorteile sowohl für Regierende als auch für Protestierende: Die Berechenbarkeit verringert die Gefahr gewaltsamer Eskalationen und liefert Präzedenzfälle, um auf Institutionen einwirken zu können. Die relative Stärke von Protestbewegungen lässt sich dabei im öffentlichen Diskurs bestimmen, weswegen Teilnehmerzahlen eine wichtige Rolle spielen; nur damit lässt sich eine Messzahl wie Momentum bestimmen (Chenoweth and Belgioioso 2019 ).…”

“…Eine solche Verstetigung soll das anhaltende Wirken Protestierender sichern (McCarthy and Zald 1977 ; della Porta and Diani 2009 , S. 150). Momentum, definiert durch die Teilnehmerzahlen und die Häufigkeit von Protestevents (Chenoweth and Belgioioso 2019 ), sollte aufrecht erhalten werden, während zunehmend durch Organisationen auf die öffentliche Meinung und Institutionen eingewirkt würde, gerade um zu vermeiden dass durch abnehmenden öffentlichen Druck Versprechen der Regierenden nichtig würden.…”