The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room

Abstract

The planning fallacy posits that humans tend to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a project and that greater complexity results in a larger difference in that estimation. If this phenomenon is present in the orthopedic operating room, it could lead to negative impacts on patients, their families, and physicians themselves. Nine fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons at one institution were asked to give an estimate of their operative and total room times over the course of three months. Over 759 cases, the surgeons underestimated the total room times by 17.3% (p = 0.034) but did not underestimate their operative times (p = 0.590). The surgeons improved estimation of their operative time for all cases from 13.6 to 10.9 minutes of their actual time (p = 0.031) by comparing the absolute difference for the surgeons’ first 25% to the last 25% of cases. Procedures performed at the hospital underestimated operative and total room times by 8.9% and 7.4% compared to the ambulatory center, which overestimated operative times by 6.0% and underestimated total room times by 3.8% (p < 0.001). We found that the planning fallacy does exist in certain situations within the orthopedic operating room.

Factors Affecting the Duration of Surgery in the Management of Condylar Head Fractures

“…Moreover, accurate surgery time prediction is important for efficient operating theatre utilization. Underestimating operating times will lead to extended preoperative waiting times, reduced patient satisfaction, and the necessity to use other hospital-associated resources-such as overtime incurred to be remunerated and the need to provide backup staff-and leading to surgeon burnout [35]. While assessing operating times may be essential for scheduling, it can be difficult to predict, especially in oral and maxillofacial surgery [36].…”

Predicting Orthopedic Surgery Times Using Machine Learning

“…To demonstrate the potential of prediction in an orthopedic cluster, we consider the work by [15] in which nine fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons at a single institution were asked to estimate their operative and total room times over three months. The study aimed to uncover the planning fallacy (the tendency to underestimate actual time durations) in orthopedic surgery.…”