The Poisson model limits in NBA basketball: Complexity in team sports

Martín-González, J.M.; Guerra, Yves de Saá; García-Manso, Juan Manuel; Arriaza, Enrique; Valverde-Estévez, Teresa

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.028

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For basketball, there exist many quantitative studies (e.g. Wolfers, 2006;Glickman and Sonas, 2015;Lopez and Matthews, 2015;Neudorfer and Rosset, 2018), some of which consider Poisson scores (Merritt and Clauset, 2014;Ruiz and Perez-Cruz, 2015;Martín-González et al, 2016). However, the "three-point basket", a scoring-rule innovation introduced to NBA in 1979, and penalty shots imply three scoring-modes (Baker and McHale, 2013), which makes modelling scores in basketball more difficult, not least because, in the extensive data that exist for basketball results, the numbers of each type of score in a match are typically not recorded.…”

Section: A New Model For a High-scoring Contestmentioning

confidence: 99%

The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball

Baker

Chadwick

Parma

et al. 2021

Journal of the Operational Research Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We introduce the binomial-match as a model for the bivariate score in a paired-contest. This model is naturally associated with sports in which the restart alternates following a goal. The model is a challenger to the Poisson-match, a pair of independent Poisson random variables whose means are related to the strengths of the competing teams. We use the binomial-match primarily to study the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate, particularly for high values of the scoring-rate. Netball has a high scoring-rate and motivates our model development. In the binomial-match framework, we also evaluate rule-variations, and study tactical play in netball. Our analysis suggests that the binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics. In general, we find that the binomial-match implies greater outcome uncertainty than the Poisson match, for a given scoring-rate, and that an alternating-restart is a good rule for reducing the frequency of tied outcomes. For netball in particular, we show that starting the final quarter with possession in a close, balanced match may confer a significant advantage.

show abstract

Section: A New Model For a High-scoring Contestmentioning

confidence: 99%

The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball

Baker

Chadwick

Parma

et al. 2021

Journal of the Operational Research Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These simplifications are the basis for building stochastic models of the bivariate score that is the match outcome. Thus, if q is small and the outcomes of successive possessions are independent, then the Poisson distribution is a reason-able model for the number of scores by a competitor in the match (Maher, 1982;Heuer, Müller & Rubner, 2010 ;Martín-González, de Saá Guerra, García-Manso, Arriaza & Valverde-Estévez, 2016 ), leading to the bivariate Poisson as a model for the match outcome ( Dixon & Coles, 1997 ;Karlis & Ntzoufras, 2003 ;Koopman & Lit, 2015 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%