2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073633
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The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

Abstract: Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysi… Show more

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Cited by 60 publications
(40 citation statements)
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“…This behavior could imply a two‐way coupling in which the vortex drives its own variability—akin to a self‐sustaining oscillator. Several studies (e.g., Lorenz & DeWeaver, ; Tamarin & Kaspi, ) have indicated a poleward shift in the North Atlantic storm track during winter under future climate change. This may lead to an increased frequency of strong S‐G dipoles and thus more frequent wave breaking events and stratospheric vortex weakening, but the aforementioned biases may reduce the ability of climate models to fully represent this source of subseasonal variability.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This behavior could imply a two‐way coupling in which the vortex drives its own variability—akin to a self‐sustaining oscillator. Several studies (e.g., Lorenz & DeWeaver, ; Tamarin & Kaspi, ) have indicated a poleward shift in the North Atlantic storm track during winter under future climate change. This may lead to an increased frequency of strong S‐G dipoles and thus more frequent wave breaking events and stratospheric vortex weakening, but the aforementioned biases may reduce the ability of climate models to fully represent this source of subseasonal variability.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Of particular importance is the impact on Antarctic ice shelves of the poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks (Tamarin and Kaspi, 2017) and the observed increase in the number and intensity of cyclones around Antarctica over the last few decades (Wei and Qin 2016). The poleward shift of extratropical cyclones was found in reanalysis data of recent years (Fyfe, 2003;Son et al, 2008), and models project an estimated poleward shift of cyclone genesis 1° to 2° in latitude on average under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations (Bengtsson et al, 2009;Barnes and Polvani, 2013).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Because the rates of recovery depend on the magnitude of the storm-induced changes, the subsequent hydrodynamic conditions, sediment availability and geological setting, predicting the time until full recovery is achieved (if ever) is challenging. The current predictions of climate change indicate an acceleration of sea-level rise (Cazenave and Cozannet, 2014) and a poleward shift of mid-latitude storms (Tamarin and Kaspi, 2017), which will likely increase extreme water levels (Vousdoukas et al, 2018) and winter wave intensity in several regions of the world, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (Semedo et al, 2013). Hence addressing the timescales of beach recov-ery to extreme storm winters, such as the 2013-14 winter, can provide a measure of coastal resilience in a changing climate.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%