The Political (And Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence

The Usefulness of Consumer Sentiment: Assessing Construct and Measurement

“…Precisely what those noneconomic factors are has received little attention (but see De Boef and Kellstedt 2004). However, they might include the decisions and (in)actions of political actors-legislative stalemate, government shutdowns, and uncertain election outcomes, as well as widespread views of malfeasance of those at the top of the political economy; when those we hold responsible for the performance of the economy cannot produce economic growth and are mired in politics, there is little reason for consumers to be optimistic.…”

“…However, they might include the decisions and (in)actions of political actors-legislative stalemate, government shutdowns, and uncertain election outcomes, as well as widespread views of malfeasance of those at the top of the political economy; when those we hold responsible for the performance of the economy cannot produce economic growth and are mired in politics, there is little reason for consumers to be optimistic. Consumer attitudes are also likely to be influenced by unexpected events whose economic effects are unpredictable and are not quickly reflected in economic indicators: wars, terrorism, and natural disasters (De Boef and Kellstedt 2004). …”

Asymmetrical corporate responses to economic information: Applying the firm size effect

“…Conversely, if life is good, they view economic circumstances positively. Objective economic circumstances have a greater influence on the subjective business perceptions of consumers than any other factor (Behr & Iyengar, 1985;De Boef & Kellstedt, 2004). Haller & Norpoth (1997) did not find any differences in the understanding of economic situations among people exposed to economic news and those not exposed to economic news; they empirically determined a similarity between indices reflecting the economic reality and the aggregate opinion of "no-news" respondents.…”

“…Thus, a corporation's perception of inner circumstances is not a collective one based on the national economy, but rather an individual one based on corporate management. Economic conditions are deemed to have a greater influence on the perception of business realities than the news (Behr & Iyengar, 1985;De Boef & Kellstedt, 2004). As people experience economic issues in everyday life, they do not rely entirely on news reports (Blood & Phillips, 1995;Linden, 1982), but rather confirm those reports against their own everyday experiences (Haller & Norpoth, 1997).…”

Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series

“…The use of time series to study causal relationships among variables is a well-estab lished, prolific and advanced area of research in many different field such as Political Economy (Freeman, 1983;Freeman et al, 1989;De Boef and Kellstedt, 2004;Wolak and Palus, 2010) .…”