The Political Consequences of Terrorism: Terror Events, Casualties, and Government Duration

Abstract

How does transnational terrorism affect the stability of parliamentary governments? Does terrorism cause some governments to fail prematurely and/or does it enhance the probability that some governments will stay in office longer than they otherwise would? Using a duration model on a sample of 18 advanced parliamentary democracies between the late‐1960s and 2003, we find that terrorism exacerbates the likelihood of government failure for some governments but not others. Our principal finding is that right‐oriented governments are able to keep their hold on power more than left‐wing governments when confronted with transnational terrorism.

The Impact of Terrorism on Governance in African Countries

“…Consistent with the literature (Laver & Shepsle, 1998;Williams, 2012), some specific terrorist events affect political governance. First, events of terrorism could influence the policy options adopted by political parties owing to shifting interests in constituencies.…”

“…Third, there is a substantial body of literature which maintains that incidences of terrorism affect election anticipations because voters are likely to punish governing parties for ensuring their protection (see Berrebi & Klor, 2006;Siqueira & Sandler, 2007). The fact that terrorism influences political governance in terms of voice and accountability and political stability/no violence has been confirmed in recent empirical literature (Indridason, 2008;Williams, 2012).…”

“…Most notably that terrorism: determines voters' views and the constitution of governments (Jacobson, 2003;Langer & Cohen, 2005) and influences the survival and effectiveness of incumbent target governments (Indridason et al, 2008;Williams, 2012).…”

On the human consequences of terrorism

“…Two additional cross-country studies focus on the political effects of transnational terrorism alone. Williams et al (2013) find that when transnational terrorism occurs, parliamentarian governments on the left of the political spectrum are more likely to fail than those on the right, and that the probability of government replacement rises with the total number killed in any given month. Park and Bali (2017) find that transnational terrorism destabilizes incumbents, with the effect being most profound for autocracies.…”

The role of inclusive development and military expenditure in modulating the effect of terrorism on governance

“…and political stability/no violence (Indridason, 2008;Williams, 2012), political governance (Jacobson, 2003;Langer & Cohen, 2005), the outcome of political elections (Kibris, 2010), economic governance (Tabor, 2016), the rule of law (Efobi & Asongu (2016) and most dimensions of World Governance Indicators negatively (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2017b). We complement the underlying literature by introducing policy variables of inclusive development and military expenditure in the assessment of how these policy variables can be used to mitigate the established negative effect of terrorism on governance.…”