The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.</jats:p>

Contrasting housing supply in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom

“…They also show that income levels in Northern Ireland were approximately 50 per cent lower than those in the southern and eastern regions of Ireland where 76 per cent of the population live. McGuinness and Bergin (2020) also point out that alternative living standards indicators are available which are consistent with the differences in per capita income levels. Finally, they note that in terms of future prospects, the annual average 10-year forecast (2020 to 2030) for Irish GDP growth is 2.6 per cent, which compares to 1.7 per cent for the UK, and 1.9 per cent for the OECD as a whole.…”

“…The relative performance of the Irish and Northern Irish economy has been dealt with in some detail by McGuinness and Bergin (2020), who note that Northern Ireland's position as one of the poorest UK regions has altered little over the 2000 to 2014 period. They also show that income levels in Northern Ireland were approximately 50 per cent lower than those in the southern and eastern regions of Ireland where 76 per cent of the population live.…”

Changing social and political attitudes in Ireland and Northern Ireland

“…The depth of the recession's impact on Irish attitudes compared to Northern Ireland highlights the potential social costs of the Irish economic model, relative to Northern Ireland's. Ireland's greater openness to the global economy brings benefits but also renders it vulnerable to global economic crises (McGuinness and Bergin, 2020a), which can have severe knock-on effects on the social and political health of society.…”