The political economy of crime: Did Universal Credit increase crime rates?

Abstract

<p>Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime rates remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as Universal Credit enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite Universal Credit being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations.</p>