The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s

Abstract

Research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature. I bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in Latin America from 1982 to 1990. An analysis of 21 competitive elections indicates that crisis conditions undermine support for incumbents and provoke high levels of electoral volatility but without necessarily fostering the growth of political extremism or the exhaustion of elite consensus associated with the breakdown of democracy. The results also suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and electoral instability is mediated by party system structure rather than democratic age. Paradoxically, the findings buttress prior research on electoral outcomes in the comparatively stable and homogeneous Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations while undercutting theoretical frameworks elaborated with specific reference to the breakdown and consolidation of Third World democracy.

Voting in Kenya: Putting Ethnicity in Perspective

“…For advanced democracies, elections tend to take the form of a referendum on the economy, with voters rewarding or punishing incumbent political parties at the ballot box depending on their past policy performance (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000, Geys 2006). Evidence of this sort of retrospective, interest-based economic voting has also been found in Latin America and other parts of the developing world (Remmer 1991;Pacek and Radcliff 1995). More commonly, however, voters in new democracies and deeply divided societies are held to rely on cultural attachments when deciding how to vote.…”

Evidencia de ciclo político presupuestal en el Estado de México

“…Específicamente, Remmer (1991) analiza los efectos electorales sobre el balance fiscal en ocho países de América Latina y concluye que la dirección de tales efectos es heterogénea. Vínculos entre comicios y cambios presupuestales pueden establecerse sólo en el caso de Venezuela.…”

Rendición de cuentas en las democracias en desarrollo: El votante latinoamericano

“…Afortunadamente ha habido algunos estudios que analizan conjuntamente varios países (pooled) centrándose en un subgrupo de naciones latinoamericanas (Benton, 2005;Echegaray, 2005;Gélineau, 2007;Johnson and Schwindt-Bayer, 2009;Remmer, 1991). Estos análisis de varios países agrupados (pooled) han tendido a confirmar la idea del voto económico clásico por el cual se premia por un buen desempeño económico y se castiga por uno malo (Key, 1966;Fiorina, 1981;Lewis-Beck, 1988).…”