23 24 25 26 The instruments described in this paper are included in the Supplementary Online Materials, and 27 are also archived at osf.io/qqq82. The complete datasets, lists of variables, and analytic code are 28 archived at osf.io/qqq82 and http://escholarship.org/uc/item/82j5p9r3 29
Accepted for publication in Psychological Science
1
Abstract 30To benefit from information provided by others, people must be somewhat credulous. However, 31 credulity entails risks. The optimal level of credulity depends on the relative costs of believing 32 misinformation versus failing to attend to accurate information. When information concerns 33 hazards, erroneous incredulity is often more costly than erroneous credulity, as disregarding 34 accurate warnings is more harmful than adopting unnecessary precautions. Because no 35 equivalent asymmetry characterizes information concerning benefits, people should generally be 36 more credulous of hazard information than of benefit information. This adaptive negatively-37 biased credulity is linked to negativity bias in general, and is more prominent among those who 38 believe the world to be dangerous. Because both threat sensitivity and dangerous-world beliefs 39 differ between conservatives and liberals, we predicted that conservatism would positively 40 correlate with negatively-biased credulity. Two online studies of Americans support this 41 prediction, potentially illuminating the impact of politicians' alarmist claims on different 42 portions of the electorate. 43 44 Keywords: threat sensitivity; negativity bias; negatively-biased credulity; political orientation 45 2 In 2012, a liberal professor wrote that the Obama Administration was stockpiling 46 ammunition, preparing for totalitarian rule. This idea was ignored by liberals. In 2015, 47 conservative bloggers asserted that a military exercise aimed to occupy Texas and impose 48 martial law. Conservatives became so concerned that the Texas Governor ordered the State 49Guard to monitor the exercise. 50The different fates of these two conspiracy theories might simply reflect their historical 51 particulars. Whereas in 2012 liberal Americans largely approved of the Obama Administration, 52 in 2015 most conservative Americans did not. Perhaps the first theory died while the second 53 prospered simply because the latter resonated with the views of a substantial audience while the 54 former did not. However, two bodies of research suggest that psychological differences related 55 to political orientation may also have been at work. First, a sizeable literature documents that, in 56 the U.S., responsiveness to negative stimuli correlates with political orientation, with 57 conservatives displaying more responsiveness, and liberals displaying less. Second, recent 58 studies indicate that people are more credulous of information concerning hazards than of 59 information concerning benefits -and individuals differ in this regard. Here, we combine these 60 approaches, testing the hypothesis that political orientation is corre...