The politics of accountability in Supreme Court nominations: voter recall and assessment of senator votes on nominees

Abstract

While longstanding theories of political behavior argue that voters do not possess sufficient political knowledge to hold their elected representatives accountable, recent revisionist studies challenge this view, arguing that voters can both follow how their representatives vote and use that information intelligently. We apply the revisionist account to the study of Supreme Court nominations in the modern era. Using survey data on the nominations of Clarence Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan, we ask whether voters can and do hold senators accountable for their votes on Supreme Court nominees. While our results for Thomas are ambiguous, we find strong evidence for accountability in the cases of Sotomayor and Kagan. In particular, we show that voters on average can correctly recall the votes of their senators on these nominees, and that correct recall is correlated with higher levels of education and political knowledge. We then show that voters are more likely to both approve of and vote to re-elect their senator if he or she casts a vote on Sotomayor and Kagan that is in line with voters’ preferences. Finally, we show this effect is quite sizable, as it rivals the effect of agreement on other high-profile roll call votes. These results have important implications for both the broader study of representation and for understanding the current politics of Supreme Court nominations.

Diffuse Support, Partisanship, and the Electoral Relevance of the Supreme Court

“…11 Of course, voters may not accurately report which issues are of actual importance to them in their voting calculus, which is a general limitation of survey research on this topic. Regarding the Court specifically, there is at least some evidence (Bass, Cameron, and Kastellec 2022) showing that voters can and do accurately recall information about how their representatives voted on the nominations of Justices Kagan and Sotomayor and reported more favorability toward these representatives if this vote was congruent with their own preferences. We view this study as indirect evidence that citizens can accurately take in information about potential Court reform in Congress and update their views of their representatives accordingly.…”

Political Communication Education for Beginner Voters in Convenient Regional Head Elections in 2024

“…However, there are differences between firsttime voters in large cities and small towns. The enthusiasm of first-time voters is closely related to their level of education and political knowledge (Bass et al, 2022). In large cities, first-time voters tend to be more open to diverse viewpoints and value preferences regarding progressive issues, inclusivity, human rights, and multiculturalism.…”