The Politics of Pandemics: The Effect of Stay-At-Home Orders on COVID-19 Mitigation

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended every aspect of American life. State governments responded quickly to protect public health and stabilize overwhelmed hospital systems. The most restrictive policy, the stay-at-home order, was seen by public health officials as a cornerstone of successful state mitigation strategies. But like many aspects of contemporary politics, support for these efforts took on a distinctly partisan hue. In this paper, I argue that party politics significantly affected state policy responses to COVID-19, which in turn limited mitigation efforts. To this point, I first demonstrate that Democratic governors were faster and more likely to adopt stay-at-home orders than Republicans. Next, using a synthetic control approach, I show that these orders caused residents to practice greater social distancing. Finally, I find that greater social distancing worked to “flattened the curve” by limiting the growth of COVID-19 cases. Together these findings show how party politics affected state pandemic responses and have important long-term implications as states begin lifting restrictions.

Community Mitigation Strategies, Mobility, and COVID-19 Incidence Across Three Waves in the United States in 2020

“…Although not examined here, political disposition has played an important role in both implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures 37–39 and their compliance. 40–42 This body of evidence has shown that conservatives and liberals respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic such that conservatives are less likely to adopt recommended behavior changes.…”

“…Decision makers may consider adopting comprehensive communication strategies to inform populations about COVID-19 risks, adopted interventions, and why adherence to mitigation strategies is critical, which have been shown to be effective in increasing compliance across various settings. 35,36 Although not examined here, political disposition has played an important role in both implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures [37][38][39] and their compliance. [40][41][42] This body of evidence has shown that conservatives and liberals respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic such that conservatives are less likely to adopt recommended behavior changes.…”

The Politics of Re-Opening Schools: Explaining Public Preferences Reopening Schools and Public Compliance with Reopening Orders During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Meanwhile, media coverage has been documenting a similar phenomenon amongst parent groups organizing – many of whom align with ideologically conservative political campaigns. 2 There is also evidence that partisan control played a significant role in different emergency response policy: stay-at-home orders (Patterson, 2020). Again, while low in volume, there is a consistent trend in that political factors play a heavy role in policy decision-making around school reopening.…”

Is regional emergency management key to containing COVID-19? A comparison between the regional Italian models of Emilia-Romagna and Veneto

“…At the local level, policy imitation was recognized as influencing "stay-at-home" orders. Since the different policies are untested, governments copy each other in order to obtain the best solutions (Patterson, 2021).…”