2014
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-014-0860-4
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The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence

Abstract: This paper tries to identify a chronology for the Portuguese business cycle and test for the presence of duration dependence in the respective phases of expansion and contraction. A duration dependent Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is employed in that task. This model is estimated over year-on-year growth rates of a set of relevant economic indicators, namely, industrial production, a composite leading indicator and, additionally, civilian employment. The estimated speci…cations allow us to ident… Show more

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