The possibilities of quantitative analysis of the relationship between the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and the institutional characteristics of the countries of the world

Abstract

The interrelation of the severity of the epidemiological situation in a particular country and its institutional characteristics (including the level of health care, quality of management, the level of public trust, cultural characteristics, etc.) is considered. As a result, using the developed index of the severity of the epidemiological situation, the institutional characteristics that most affect the effectiveness of the measures applied were determined. It was figured out that of the 16 characteristics considered, only two (the level of employment and trust in the government) have a medium statistical correlation with the severity of the pandemic. Three more characteristics (prevalence of secular-rational values, degree of urbanization, GDP PPP per capita) have a correlation close to the medium. The remaining characteristics (including health care costs, government efficiency, etc.) have either a weak correlation wiыth severity, or actually do not have it. The results obtained indicate insufficient use and reassessment of existing institutional capacities at the initial stage of the pandemic, as well as insufficient reliability of morbidity and mortality statistics in a number of countries. In conclusion, based on the analysis of statistical indicators, recommendations are given to improve the effectiveness of the use of institutional capacity to counter epidemiological threats, improve this potential, increase the effectiveness of protective and restrictive measures that reduce the severity of the epidemiological situation.