The possibility to overcome of fish protein gap in Egypt

Abstract

Fish is one of the main resources of relatively cheap animal protein and Egyptian national income. Although Egypt has a large aquatic area but there is a fish protein gap, where the average per capita is lower compared to some developed countries. Therefore, the current study investigate the main reasons caused this gap during periods 1995-2015. Analysis of the factors associated with this gap and forecasting of its future status, the linear regression and Box and Jenkins method were used. The data showed that the cash value of fish recorded 23.4 billion pounds (19.6% of animal production) during 2015 (GAFRD, 2016). The average per capita was 18.2 kg\year compared with 70 kg in Japan, 35.4 in East Asia, 33.4 in Southeast Asia, and 35.1 in China during the same period. The annual growth rate of fish produced in Egypt was 3%, while it was 4.2% of consumption rate. The variation between production and consumption (276.3 thousand tones) led to a shortage in the self-sufficiency. In conclusion, this study recommends a future strategy for fish production to optimal exploit of all aquatic resources to reach self-sufficiency, processing and exporting.