The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors <scp><i>Culex pipiens pallens</i></scp> and <i><scp>Culex pipiens</scp> quinquefasciatus</i> in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach

Liu, Boyang; Gao, Xiang; Zheng, Keren; Ma, Jingyun; Jiao, Zhen; Xiao, Jianhua

doi:10.1002/ps.5861

Cited by 32 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Previous studies have suggested that the spatial distribution of malaria, which is transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, has shifted toward higher altitudes [7], and that the length of its transmission season has increased in highland regions [8,9]. Modeling studies carried out in China and Canada have shown that the geographical range of Culex, which is responsible for the transmission of West Nile fever and Japanese encephalitis virus, will shift northward under future climate scenarios [10,11]. Species of the genus Aedes that are vectors of dengue and Zika viruses are also projected to spread globally and cause local outbreaks of these diseases in non-endemic areas [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study

et al. 2021

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Background Despite concerns regarding increasingly frequent and intense heat waves due to global warming, there is still a lack of information on the effects of extremely high temperatures on the adult abundance of mosquito species that are known to transmit vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of extremely high temperatures on the abundance of mosquitoes by analyzing time series data for temperature and mosquito abundance in Incheon Metropolitan City (IMC), Republic of Korea, for the period from 2015 to 2020. Methods A generalized linear model with Poisson distribution and overdispersion was used to model the nonlinear association between temperature and mosquito count for the whole study area and for its constituent urban and rural regions. The association parameters were pooled using multivariate meta-regression. The temperature–mosquito abundance curve was estimated from the pooled estimates, and the ambient temperature at which mosquito populations reached maximum abundance (TMA) was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation method. To quantify the effect of extremely high temperatures on mosquito abundance, we estimated the mosquito abundance ratio (AR) at the 99th temperature percentile (AR99th) against the TMA. Results Culex pipiens was the most common mosquito species (51.7%) in the urban region of the IMC, while mosquitoes of the genus Aedes (Ochlerotatus) were the most common in the rural region (47.8%). Mosquito abundance reached a maximum at 23.5 °C for Cx. pipiens and 26.4 °C for Aedes vexans. Exposure to extremely high temperatures reduced the abundance of Cx. pipiens mosquitoes {AR99th 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21–0.54]} to a greater extent than that of Anopheles spp. [AR99th 0.64 (95% CI 0.40–1.03)]. When stratified by region, Ae. vexans and Ochlerotatus koreicus mosquitoes showed higher TMA and a smaller reduction in abundance at extreme heat in urban Incheon than in Ganghwa, suggesting that urban mosquitoes can thrive at extremely high temperatures as they adapt to urban thermal environments. Conclusions We confirmed that the temperature-related abundance of the adult mosquitoes was species and location specific. Tailoring measures for mosquito prevention and control according to mosquito species and anticipated extreme temperature conditions would help to improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease control programs. Graphical abstract

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study

et al. 2021

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“…To avoid confounding effects caused by spatial stratified heterogeneity (SSH), we calculated the q ‐statistic by using the GeoDetector (http://geodetector.cn/) software 21,22 . County level occurrences were paired with integer codes representing the provincial level administrative regions to which they belong 23,24 . The q ‐statistic tests indicate that no significant SSH exists in the samples of Z. mays ( q = 0.092; P = 1.000), R. maidis ( q = 0.116; P = 0.999), or ScMV ( q = 0.365; P = 0.795).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

Wang

et al. 2022

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND: In the coming decades, geographical distribution patterns of farmland organisms may undergo drastic changes due to climate change, with significant implications for global food security. In China, Rhopalosiphum maidis and its spread of sugarcane mosaic virus (ScMV) can become an increasingly serious threat to maize (Zea mays) production. We conducted ecological niche modeling for Z. mays, R. maidis, and ScMV under current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) climate scenarios by using MaxEnt software to explore changes in this system. RESULTS: The Heihe-Tengchong line (an imaginary separation line of human population density) can divide China into main (east of the line) and secondary (west of the line) habitats for the three species. With climate change, rapid expansion in suitable areas is projected for ScMV and the aphid vector R. maidis. Taking species interactions into consideration, our overlaying analyses show that most areas east of the Heihe-Tengchong line (optimal for maize and suitable for R. maidis) will become increasingly highly suitable for ScMV, suggesting that the prevention and control of this plant virus and its aphid vector in China's main maize-growing areas (e.g. northeast) will become an increasing challenge in the future.CONCLUSION: Climate change will profoundly affect ScMV-vector-maize interactions, which may contribute favorably to invasion of this virus into new areas. Our comprehensive and in-depth analyses on shifts in this multi-species system under climate change provide useful and insightful information for devising strategies for the prevention and control of plant viruses and aphid vectors on maize in the future.

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“…pipiens (Gangoso et al., 2020) (see Sánchez‐Gómez et al., 2017 for another approach). Furthermore, in most cases the occurrence data was restricted to the records occurring in the area of interest (Adham et al., 2019; Baak‐Baak et al., 2017; Ben Hassine et al., 2019; Conley et al., 2014; Cunze et al., 2016; Gangoso et al., 2020; García‐Bocanegra et al., 2018; Hesami et al., 2019; Kalan et al., 2017; Koch et al., 2016; Larson et al., 2010; Liu et al., 2020; Medley, 2010; Melaun et al., 2015; Moua et al., 2021; Mughini‐Gras et al., 2014; Outammassine et al., 2021; Peach et al., 2019; Peterson et al., 2008; Sallam et al., 2016, 2017; Wiese et al., 2019), thus not considering the entire niche occupied by the species to be model as recommended (Cunze et al., 2020), and probably underestimating the resulting distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Concerning WNV, most of the studies using niche model techniques has focused on the distribution of its vectors, but seldom considered the distribution of the virus or the disease system as a whole (i.e. Adham et al, 2019;Baak-Baak et al, 2017;Conley et al, 2014;Cunze et al, 2016Cunze et al, , 2020Figueroa et al, 2020;Filatov, 2017;Hesami et al, 2019;Ibáñez-Justicia et al, 2020;Kalan et al, 2017;Koch et al, 2016;Larson et al, 2010;Liu et al, 2020;Medley, 2010;Melaun et al, 2015;Moua et al, 2021;Mughini-Gras et al, 2014;Peach et al, 2019;Sallam et al, 2016Sallam et al, , 2017Samy et al, 2016;Wiese et al, 2019;but see Ben Hassine et al, 2019 andPeterson et al, 2008). The former is particularly evident in the Iberian Peninsula, where only a couple of studies considered niche modelling techniques either at a very local level (García-Bocanegra et al, 2018) or for modelling the distribution of its main vector, Cx.…”

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confidence: 99%

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

Cuervo

Artigas

Mas‐Coma

et al. 2021

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.

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The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach

Cited by 32 publications

References 78 publications

Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study

Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study

Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

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