The Potential Global Distribution of the White Peach Scale Pseudaulacaspis pentagona (Targioni Tozzetti) under Climate Change

Abstract

The white peach scale Pseudaulacaspis pentagona (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) is a pest that causes significant damage to more than 221 genera of host plants in more than 112 countries. P. pentagona primarily feeds on mulberry, peach, and tea, and this leads to the loosening of the epidermis of trees, which damages nutrient and water transportation in the branches, leading to branch death. P. pentagona is native to China and Japan, and has become an invasive species all over the world. However, the potential distribution of P. pentagona remains unclear. In this study, a potential distribution map of P. pentagona was developed using current and future climate information using MaxEnt. The model indicates that Asia, Europe, South America and North America are a highly suitable habitat range for this species. The MaxEnt models for the potential distribution of P. pentagona for the 2050s and 2070s suggest that in the case of no significant increase or even decrease in the highly suitable area, the suitable area increased significantly on any future climatic scenarios. The predicted area gain in the suitable habitat is 2.82 × 10 7 km 2 , including more of Asia, such as China, Japan, and Mongolia, and also including India, in Europe, which shows an increase of 24.5% over the current habitat on RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the 2070s. With the warming of the climate, significant expansions are predicted in the suitable area, especially in Europe and East Asia. Under RCP8.5 for the 2050s, the model-predicted that the area of suitable habitat in China and the Korean Peninsula gains an increase of 18.8% over the current suitable habitat area. Under other climate scenarios, RCP8.5-2070s, the suitable areas were the largest, compared to projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 24.1% increase) which increased to 7.89 × 10 6 km 2 . In Europe, under RCP8.5 for the 2070s, the highly suitable areas were the largest, compared to the projection for the current climate scenario (ca. 46.2% increase), which increased to 8.64 × 10 5 km 2 , the area of suitable habitat suitability increased to 4.99 × 10 6 km 2 (29.2% increase of the current condition). Potential increases or decreases in distribution ranges were modeled under future climatic scenarios. This study suggests that the most important factor that influenced current distribution of this pest was temperature, and BIO3 (isothermality) was the most important factor that contributed to 48.6% of the potential distribution map. Given the rapid spread of P. pentagona and the serious risk this species poses to local ecosystems, warning modelling and practical strategies to prevent the establishment and expansion of this species should be sought. This distribution map will help governments to identify areas that are suitable for current and future infestations, and to optimize pest management strategies.

Modeling of the potential geographical distribution of naked oat under climate change

“…concentration pathways that consider socio-economic, land-use effects on the development of regional climate change (Moss et al, 2010;O'Neill et al, 2016;Lu et al, 2020). Comparing these results with those of the naked oat suitable habitats in the current climate, this study provides a suitable stable habitat for the species under climate change.…”

“…In contrast to previous studies, this study goes beyond considering the relationship between CO 2 concentration and climate, and explores the impact of scenario changes in greenhouse gas emissions on the geographic distribution of species under socio-economic changes and policy intervention. Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) can be used to predict greenhouse gas emission scenarios under different climate policies in 2100, which differ from representative concentration pathways that consider socio-economic, land-use effects on the development of regional climate change ( Moss et al., 2010 ; O’Neill et al., 2016 ; Lu et al., 2020 ). Comparing these results with those of the naked oat suitable habitats in the current climate, this study provides a suitable stable habitat for the species under climate change.…”

“…Therefore, we used feature type FC and regulated frequency doubling RM to optimize the model. The feature type represents different transformations ( Lu et al., 2020 ) of the covariable, including linear (L), product (P), hinge (H), threshold (T) and quadratic feature (Q) ( Elith et al., 2011 ). Adjusting the frequency doubling RM can reduce overfitting of the model and make the model smoother.…”

Study on the Potential Distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata and Its Natural Enemy Picromerus bidens Under Climate Change

“…The Feature Class (FC) and Regular Multiplier (RM) were thus used to optimize the model. The FC represents different transformations of covariables (Lu et al, 2020), including Linear (L), Product (P), Quadratic (Q), Threshold (T), and Hinge (H) (Elith et al, 2011;Kong et al, 2019). Adjusting the RM reduces the over-fitting of the model, making it smoother.…”

Comparative study on Pseudaulacaspis pentagona resistance of four different cultivars of kiwifruit

“…Although the cultivated area of kiwifruit is ever‐increasing each year, varieties of pests, including scale insects, Metcalfa pruinosa , brown marmorated stinkbug and lepidopteran, destroy kiwifruit's leaf, stem and fruit, causing enormous economic loss (Donati et al, 2017; Kubota et al, 2017; Lara et al, 2018; Logan et al, 2017). White peach scale ( Pseudaulacaspis pentagona [Targioni‐Tozzetti]) is a destructive scale insect and causes severe kiwifruit yield reduction (Lu et al, 2020). P. pentagona damages the kiwifruit directly by sucking sap from the leaves, stems and canes, affecting the quality and quantity of kiwifruit produced (Zhuang et al, 2016).…”