The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

Abstract

With the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, one of the major concerns is the burden COVID-19 will impose on the United States (U.S.) health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the U.S. population and what can happen to each person who gets infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). We estimate resource use and direct medical costs per infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates) to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 infection would cost a median of $3,045 in direct medical costs incurred only during the course of the infection. Eighty percent of the U.S. population getting infected could result in a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million ICU admissions, 6.5 million ventilators used, and 249.5 million hospital bed days, costing $654.0 billion in direct costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20% were to become infected, there would be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing $163.4 billion.

The Economic Burden of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Evidence from Iran

“…The average direct medical costs for these patients were estimated to be $ 3,755 per person. Based on a recent study in the United States conducted by Bartsch et al the average direct medical costs per person were estimated $3,045 throughout the period of the infection (15). In this regard, the results of these two studies are comparable.…”

“…From an economic perspective, the spread of COVID-19, the ever-increasing number of patients, and the complications of the disease have imposed signi cant direct medical and indirect costs on patients, the health system and the government (12). As far as the economic burden of direct medical costs is concerned, although the costs vary with the number of the infected people, the severity of the disease, mean length of stay in the hospital, mean length of stay in the ICU, and other factors (13,14), international studies showed that medical costs of the patients with COVID-19 were signi cantly higher than those of other infectious diseases due to the higher probability of hospitalization and mortality (15). This is true about the need for COVID-19 patients for special care services and the related costs (16)(17)(18).…”

The Economic Burden of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Evidence from Iran

“…The average direct medical costs for these patients were estimated to be $ 3,755 per person. Based on a recent study in the United States conducted by Bartsch et al, the average direct medical costs per person were estimated $3,045 throughout the infection (15). In this regard, the results of these two studies are comparable.…”

“…From an economic perspective, the spread of COVID-19, the ever-increasing number of patients, and the complications of the disease have imposed high direct medical and indirect costs on patients, the health system and the government (12). As far as the economic burden of direct medical costs is concerned, although the costs vary with the number of the infected people, the severity of the disease, mean length of stay in the hospital, mean length of stay in the ICU, and other factors (13,14), international studies showed that medical costs of the patients with COVID-19 were signi cantly higher than those of other infectious diseases due to the higher probability of hospitalization and mortality (15). These circumstances are also right about the need for COVID-19 patients for special care services and the related costs (16)(17)(18).…”

The Vent-Lock Protocol: 3D Printing and Testing of A Ventilator Multiplexer to Enhance the Capacity of Treating Patients with COVID-19 

“…Ventilator shortages occur in resource-rich countries as well. Previous disasters and current projections suggest that hospitals may be operating at 120-160% capacity in the face of a pandemic or national disaster 6 . Projections suggest that if 20% of the United States population is infected with the virus, there will be signi cant de ciencies in intensive care unit beds and mechanical ventilators 6,7 .…”