The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping

Abstract

The higher temperatures of climate change may result in a fall in Great Lakes water levels. For vessels carrying imports into and exports out of the Great Lakes lower lake levels will lead to restrictions on vessel drafts and reductions in vessel cargos, increasing the number of trips and the cost of moving cargo. Estimates of these impacts are derived from simulations of a recent year's international cargo movements, comparing a base case with no climate change to various climate change scenarios. The impacts vary from a 5% increase in vessel variable operating costs for a climate change scenario representing the possible climate in 2030 to over 22% for a scenario representing a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Impacts vary by commodity and route. For years of naturally occurring low water the impacts are up to 13% higher for even the most moderate climate change scenario. Climate change may also result in a shorter time of ice cover leading to an extension of the navigation season. Climate change is also expected to increase the threat of damage from aquatic invasive species, possibly leading to further requirements for ships to undertake preventive measures.

Climate change as a driver of change in the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin

“…The thickness, duration and area of ice coverage declines due to warmer winter air and water temperatures, as well as a reduced snowfall. (Gotham et al, 2012), 2 (Wilcox et al, 2007), 3 (Patz et al, 2008), 4 (Scott et al, 2002), 5 (Millerd, 2005(Millerd, , 2011, 6 (Kling et al, 2003), 7 (Wolfe et al, 2008), 8 (Sousounis and Bisanz, 2000), 9 , 10 (Hall et al, 2007). less adaptive capacity and influencing the economic future of the basin (Austin and Affolter-Caine, 2006).…”

Effects of climate change on US grain transport

“…Several studies suggest that climate change would reduce Great Lakes water levels, thus potentially increasing shipment costs 21 . We examined 5, 10, and 20 percent increases in waterborne shipping costs.…”

Visualizing relationships between hydrology, climate, and water level fluctuations on Earth's largest system of lakes

“…The first, "Why are current water levels on the Great Lakes so low? ", reflects concern over widespread impacts of persistent low water levels on Lakes Superior and MichiganHuron, but also misconceptions about relative water level conditions across the entire Great Lakes system (see, for example, Buttle et al, 2004;Millerd, 2010;Schwartz et al, 2004). The second question, "Is less ice cover on the lakes leading to higher evaporation and lower water levels?…”