The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Québec, Canada

Doyon, Bernard; Bélanger, Diane; Gosselin, Pierre

doi:10.1186/1476-072x-7-23

Cited by 91 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The adverse effects of increased temperatures can be prolonged for many days (so-called lagged effects) (Braga and Zanobetti 2002;Conti et al 2005;Curriero et al 2002;Davis et al 2003a;Davis et al 2003b;Dessai 2002;Donaldson et al 2001;Donaldson et al 2003;Gosling et al 2007;Gouveia et al 2003;Hajat et al 2005;Huynen et al 2001;Keatinge et al 2000;Michelozzi et al 2005;O'Neill et al 2003;Paldy et al 2005;Pattenden et al 2003;Sartor et al 1995;Vandentorren et al 2004). In addition, there is evidence suggesting that colder than normal temperatures can increase mortality (Carson et al 2001;Doyon et al 2008;Goodwin 2007;Gouveia et al 2003;Kovats et al 1998;Martens 1998;McMichael et al 2006), although these effects appear to be delayed for as many as two weeks into the future (Braga and Zanobetti 2002;Gouveia et al 2003;Huynen et al 2001;Pattenden et al 2003). …”

Section: The Temperature-mortality Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past decade, research has focused mainly on the effects of elevated temperatures on human mortality (Basu and Samet 2002;Gosling et al 2009) and on the effects of cold temperatures (Goodwin 2007), some of the authors addressing simultaneously both effects from heat and cold (Doyon et al 2008;Kovats and Haines 2005;McMichael et al 2006). …”

Section: The Temperature-mortality Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Substantial data from around the world has implicated increased daily temperatures, usually above a location-specific "threshold", with increased counts of mortality and hospitalizations (Basu and Samet 2002;Doyon et al 2008;Gosling et al 2009;Gouveia et al 2003;Kovats et al 1998;Martens 1998;McMichael et al 2006). These 1995; Vandentorren et al 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These 1995; Vandentorren et al 2004). In addition, there is some evidence suggesting that colder than normal temperatures can increase risk (Carson et al 2001;Doyon et al 2008;Goodwin 2007;Gouveia et al 2003;Kovats et al 1998;Martens 1998;McMichael et al 2006), and these effects can be delayed for as many as two weeks into the future (Braga and Zanobetti 2002;Goldberg et al 2011;Gouveia et al 2003;Huynen et al 2001;Pattenden et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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The association between short-term changes in ambient temperature and daily mortality has been described widely in the literature. A few recent papers support the hypothesis that diurnal variations in temperature may also have an impact on mortality, independent of the effect of daily mean temperature. The objective of the thesis was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature increased daily non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Quebec, during the 1984-2007 study period. We used distributed lag non-linear models constrained over a 30 day lag period, and adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone. We found over the 30 day lag period a cumulative increase of 5.12% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02 to 10.49) in daily mortality for an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 6 °C to 11 °C and a 11.27% (95% CI: 2.08 to 21.29) increase in mortality associated with an increase of the diurnal temperature range from 11 to 16 °C. The results were relatively robust to adjustment for mean temperature.In conclusion, we found that in Montreal daily diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm these effects.ii Résumé L'association entre les variations à court terme de la température ambiante et la mortalité quotidienne a été largement décrite dans la littérature. Quelques articles récents supportent l'hypothèse que les variations diurnes de la température peuvent également avoir un impact notable sur la mortalité, indépendamment de l'effet de la température moyenne. L'objectif de la thèse était de déterminer si les variations de température diurne provoquent une augmentation de la mortalité quotidienne non accidentelle chez les iii

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Section: The Temperature-mortality Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Temperature-mortality Relationshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

2013

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“…In highly populated areas, the vertical and horizontal development of cities with artificial materials decrease the ventilation and increase the absorption of solar radiation, thus reducing the longwave emissions to the atmosphere [3,4]. The elevated temperature triggers heat-related diseases and contributes to premature deaths in urban areas [5,6].…”

Section: Background and Necessity Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Deduction of Optimum Surface Design Factors for Enhancement of Outdoor Thermal Environment in a Micro-Scale Unit

Jung

Yoon

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:To solve some of the problems associated with changing urban climates, such as the heat island effect, the exterior building skin and ground surfaces should be analyzed because they are directly exposed to the outdoor climate and have the greatest impact on energy consumption. Research is needed to identify design factors to improve the effect of a building's skin in the outdoor summer season's thermal environment. In this study, the current conditions of outdoor thermal environments were identified by conducting field measurements at an apartment housing complex. A simulation analysis was conducted based on cases that included different design factors for a building's skin and ground surfaces. When the significance probability of the design factors for the surface plans for apartment buildings and surface cover was analyzed based on the Taguchi experimental design method, the window plan and surface cover plan influenced the outdoor thermal environment. Notably, the surface cover plan had the most significant impact on the outdoor thermal environment. The result of the analysis of the correlation between the design factors for an apartment complex's surface plans and outdoor thermal environment indices showed that the window plan correlated with the entire surface temperature of building and heat island potential (HIP).

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The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application

Wilby

Dawson

2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

291

152

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ABSTRACT:The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) is a freely available tool that produces high resolution climate change scenarios. The first public version of the software was released in 2001 and since then there have been over 170 documented studies worldwide. This article recounts the underlining conceptual and technical evolution of SDSM, drawing upon independent assessments of model capabilities. These studies show that SDSM yields reliable estimates of extreme temperatures, seasonal precipitation totals, areal and inter-site precipitation behaviour. Frequency estimation of extreme precipitation amounts in dry seasons is less reliable. A meta-analysis of SDSM outputs shows a preponderance of research in Canada, China and the UK, whereas the United States and Australasia are under-represented. In line with the wider downscaling community, the most favoured sector of analysis is water and flood risk management which accounts for nearly half of all output; research in other sectors such as agriculture, built environment and human health is less prominent but growing. Over 50% of the studies are concerned with production of climate scenarios, comparison or technical refinement of downscaling methodologies. In contrast, there is relatively little evidence of application to adaptation planning and climate risk management. We assert that further attention to physically meaningful quantities such as wind speeds, wave heights, phenological and hazard metrics could improve uptake of downscaled products. Chronic uncertainty in boundary forcing continues to undermine confidence in downscaled scenarios so these tools are best used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal.

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The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Québec, Canada

Abstract: Background: The impact of climate change and particularly increasing temperature on mortality has been examined for three cities in the province of Québec, Canada.

Cited by 91 publications

References 31 publications

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

Deduction of Optimum Surface Design Factors for Enhancement of Outdoor Thermal Environment in a Micro-Scale Unit

The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application

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