The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States.

Abstract

Heat and heat waves are projected to increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures. Studies in urban areas show an association between increases in mortality and increases in heat, measured by maximum or minimum temperature, heat index, and sometimes, other weather conditions. Health effects associated with exposure to extreme and prolonged heat appear to be related to environmental temperatures above those to which the population is accustomed. Models of weather-mortality relationships indicate that populations in northeastern and midwestern U.S. cities are likely to experience the greatest number of illnesses and deaths in response to changes in summer temperature. Physiologic and behavioral adaptations may reduce morbidity and mortality. Within heat-sensitive regions, urban populations are the most vulnerable to adverse heat-related health outcomes. The elderly, young children, the poor, and people who are bedridden or are on certain medications are at particular risk. Heat-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable through behavioral adaptations, including the use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Overall death rates are higher in winter than in summer, and it is possible that milder winters could reduce deaths in winter months. However, the relationship between winter weather and mortality is difficult to interpret. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency plans, warning systems, and illness management plans. Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention.

Excess deaths during the 2004 heatwave in Brisbane, Australia

“…The elderly and young children may not be able to cope with heat stress through efficient thermoregulation because of their higher sweating thresholds, thus increasing the risk of lifethreatening consequences when their body temperatures rise (Drinkwater and Horvath 1979). A majority of deaths in heatwaves appear to be due to pre-existing chronic diseases, especially cardiovascular disease (McGeehin and Mirabelli 2001).…”

Influence of season on plasma antidiuretic hormone, angiotensin II, aldosterone and plasma renin activity in young volunteers

“…The relationship between human health and weather conditions is a complex medical, social and environmental issue (MacGeehin and Mirabelli 2001). Heat exposure has been associated with symptoms such as fatigue, cramps, syncope and coma (O'Neill and Ebi 2009).…”

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

“…However, heat waves have broad geographic and social impacts and have been linked to excess human mortality and illness (Smoyer-Tomic et al 2003). Furthermore, future climate scenarios project that heat and heat waves will increase in severity and frequency with increasing global mean temperatures (McGeehin and Mirabelli 2001;Souch and Grimmond 2004).…”