The potential of species distribution modelling for reintroduction projects: the case study of the Chequered Skipper in England

Maes, Dirk; Ellis, Sam; Goffart, Philippe; Cruickshanks, K. L.; Swaay, Chris van; Cors, R.; Herremans, Marc; Swinnen, Kristijn R.R.; Wils, Carine; Verhulst, Sofie; Bruyn, Luc De; Matthysen, Erik; O’Riordan, Susannah; Hoare, D. S.; Bourn, Nigel A. D.

doi:10.1007/s10841-019-00154-w

Cited by 20 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…They have been largely used to understand species' vulnerability to climate change, a key step in developing effective biodiversity conservation plans, and less frequently, to identify and implement management options, like translocation planning (Foden et al., 2019), and detect the role of climate change in translocations failure (Bellis et al., 2020). So far, SDMs have been used to select suitable sites for reintroduction of single species (Adhikari et al., 2012; Wilson et al, 2011), to identify potential source populations for translocation (Maes et al., 2019) and to predict range expansion after translocation (Smeraldo et al., 2017). SDMs have been used in combination with the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria and related metrics for incorporating the impact of climate change on species extinction risk (Attorre et al., 2018) and other conservation purposes (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

et al. 2021

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Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2 × 2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas. Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13–16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32–35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short‐distance AC. Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

et al. 2021

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“…However, there are pit-falls associated with SDMs, such as the potential for disequilibrium between range and niche due to dispersal limitations and biotic interactions (Svenning & Sandel 2013). Furthermore, examples of translocation projects explicitly outlining the use of SDMs to guide management decisions are scarce (Guisan et al 2013) (but see Brooker et al [2018] and Maes et al [2019]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure

Bellis

Bourke

Maschinski

et al. 2020

Conservation Biology

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The continuing decline and loss of biodiversity has caused an increase in the use of interventionist conservation tools, such as translocation. However, many translocation attempts fail to establish viable populations, with poor release site selection often flagged as an inhibitor of success. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the climate suitability of 102 release sites for amphibians, reptiles, and terrestrial insects and compared suitability predictions between successful and failed attempts. We then quantified the importance of climate suitability relative to 5 other variables frequently considered in the literature as important determinants of translocation success: number of release years, number of individuals released, life stage released, origin of the source population, and position of the release site relative to the species' range. Probability of translocation success increased as predicted climate suitability increased and this effect was the strongest among the variables we considered, accounting for 48.3% of the variation in translocation outcome. These findings should encourage greater consideration of climate suitability when selecting release sites for conservation translocations and we advocate the use of SDMs as an effective way to do this.

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“…with the base maps to further identify conservation priorities. Another advantage of this research is that it also enables us to obtain a better understanding of potential refugia for certain species under climate change, which would be extremely useful when ex situ rescue or population reintroductions must be implemented [ 108 , 109 , 110 ]. Areas of high endemism should also be a future priority; the commonly applied parsimony analysis of endemicity affiliated with GIS could provide such vital information for conservation planning [ 111 , 112 , 113 , 114 ].…”

Section: Recommendations Of Future Butterfly Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Butterfly Conservation in China: From Science to Action

Wang

Suman

Zhang

et al. 2020

Insects

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About 10% of the Earth’s butterfly species inhabit the highly diverse ecosystems of China. Important for the ecological, economic, and cultural services they provide, many butterfly species experience threats from land use shifts and climate change. China has recently adopted policies to protect the nation’s biodiversity resources. This essay examines the current management of butterflies in China and suggests various easily implementable actions that could improve these conservation efforts. Our recommendations are based on the observations of a transdisciplinary group of entomologists and environmental policy specialists. Our analysis draws on other successful examples around the world that China may wish to consider. China needs to modify its scientific methodologies behind butterfly conservation management: revising the criteria for listing protected species, focusing on umbrella species for broader protection, identifying high priority areas and refugia for conservation, among others. Rural and urban land uses that provide heterogeneous habitats, as well as butterfly host and nectar plants, must be promoted. Butterfly ranching and farming may also provide opportunities for sustainable community development. Many possibilities exist for incorporating observations of citizen scientists into butterfly data collection at broad spatial and temporal scales. Our recommendations further the ten Priority Areas of China’s National Biodiversity Conservation Strategy and Action Plan (2011–2030).

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The potential of species distribution modelling for reintroduction projects: the case study of the Chequered Skipper in England

Cited by 20 publications

References 63 publications

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure

Butterfly Conservation in China: From Science to Action

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