The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model

Wu, Yun-Ling; Tung, Cheng-Huang; Lee, Chun-Chang

doi:10.18488/journal.aefr/2017.7.1/102.1.81.98

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 24 publications

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“…Other factors affecting housing prices include fluctuation trends of the real estate market (Wu et al, 2017;Hui, 2013;Bates & Santerre, 2016;Miao et al, 2020;Annette et al, 2018), noise, air quality, homebuyer identity and their psychological behavior and homebuying preferences, length of residence, average household income, neighbor satisfaction (Zangerle, 1927), earthquake-related risks in the area, access to administrative and parking areas (Wang & Chen, 2018), housing location, maintenance level, number of sales (Aliyev et al, 2019), and access to public services (Li et al, 2019). In addition to housing characteristics and convenience in daily life, other factors of influence are the real estate cycle (Wu et al, 2017;Hong et al, 2015;Hui, 2013;Bates & Santerre, 2016;Miao et al, 2020;Annette et al, 2018), noise conditions (Bré card et al, 2018), real estate market environment, homebuyer identity and their psychological behavior and homebuying preferences (Chen et al, 2012), urban infrastructure (Liu et al, 2020), housing affordability (Seo et al, 2018), socioeconomic characteristics, neighborhood quality, and location factors (Keskin, 2008).…”

Section: Other Factors Affecting Housing Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of the Principal Component Index for Housing Quality Satisfaction on Housing Price: Urban vs. Rural Analysis

Wang¹,

Lee²,

Huang³

2022

IJEF

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The 2015 Questionnaire Survey on Housing Conditions by the Construction and Planning Agency surveyed four categories of satisfactions on housing quality: living convenience, surrounding environmental quality, satisfaction on interior environment, and satisfaction on exterior environment. This study pioneeringly investigates the effect of housing satisfaction on Taiwanese housing price for six municipalities and other rural area. Since the above four survey categories of housing quality are highly overlapping, to avoid variable interaction, we construct an index for housing quality satisfaction using principle component analysis to reduce dimensionality. After controlling the moderation effect of market condition, the results show that residential area, house age, floor location, and number of floors all significantly affect housing price. More importantly, the index for housing quality satisfaction is positively related to housing price, indicating that better housing quality helps in raising housing price. However, the positive relation does not exist in Taipei City or Kaohsiung City. Consistent with previous studies, stress on high housing price may weaken the need for quality consideration, especially the case of Taipei City. Finally, market variation does not lead to difference in the relation between housing quality satisfaction and housing price.

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Section: Other Factors Affecting Housing Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of the Principal Component Index for Housing Quality Satisfaction on Housing Price: Urban vs. Rural Analysis

Wang¹,

Lee²,

Huang³

2022

IJEF

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Different factors affecting the real estate market in the Egyptian context

Mustafa,

Hassan,

Elrefaie

et al. 2024

IJHMA

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Purpose Real estate projects are capital-intensive and deeply intertwined with economic factors, making them subject to various influences besides local housing needs. This paper aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, examining real estate cycles, driving factors and their correlation and scale of impact. Design/methodology/approach The study conducts a literature review to explore real estate cycles and their driving factors, along with the relationship between real estate and macroeconomic cycles. It then delves into the dynamics of the Egyptian real estate market, followed by a time series analysis that incorporates five key indicators: economic indicator, demand indicator, supply indicator, capital flow indicator and cost indicator over a 12-year interval (2012–2023), to examine short-term cycle factors, followed by correlation and multi-linear regression analysis to elucidate interrelations among these factors. Findings Through measuring and comparing the prementioned indicators with different economic and social events, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the macroeconomic environment and the real estate cycle in Egypt. Where demand has been found to be more sensitive and directly affected by macroeconomic factors than the supply. With the economic factor as the factor with the highest impact, especially in times of economic fluctuations, the impact has been immediate and short-term. These findings support the idea that the demand in Egypt is speculative, laying a threat of longer recession periods in the long term and having greater and more direct impact. Originality/value This paper contributes to the understanding of the Egyptian real estate market by integrating insights from real estate cycles, macroeconomics and specific market dynamics. The application of time series, correlation and multi-linear regression analysis provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between several factors shaping the real estate cycle. Ultimately, the findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers involved in urban development planning, facilitating more informed and precise decision-making processes.

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The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model

Cited by 2 publications

References 24 publications

The Effect of the Principal Component Index for Housing Quality Satisfaction on Housing Price: Urban vs. Rural Analysis

The Effect of the Principal Component Index for Housing Quality Satisfaction on Housing Price: Urban vs. Rural Analysis

Different factors affecting the real estate market in the Egyptian context

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