The power of prediction markets

Mann, Adam

doi:10.1038/538308a

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Consequently, we recommend that trialists consider providing estimates of prior probability in their prepublished statistical analysis plans [30]. Further work is needed to determine whether pooled estimates obtained by “crowd-sourcing” clinicians’ views of perceived prior probability via survey provide a replicable and accurate method of assessing prior probability or whether other methods of estimating prior probability [31] are preferred.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect sizes in ongoing randomized controlled critical care trials

et al. 2017

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BackgroundAn important limitation of many critical care trial designs is that they hypothesize large, and potentially implausible, reductions in mortality. Interpretation of trial results could be improved by systematic assessment of the plausibility of trial hypotheses; however, such assessment has not been attempted in the field of critical care medicine. The purpose of this study was to determine clinicians’ views about prior probabilities and plausible effect sizes for ongoing critical care trials where the primary endpoint is landmark mortality.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of clinical trial registries in September 2015 to identify ongoing critical care medicine trials where landmark mortality was the primary outcome, followed by a clinician survey to obtain opinions about ten large trials. Clinicians were asked to estimate the probability that each trial would demonstrate a mortality effect equal to or larger than that used in its sample size calculations.ResultsEstimates provided by individual clinicians varied from 0% to 100% for most trials, with a median estimate of 15% (IQR 10–20%). The median largest absolute mortality reduction considered plausible was 4.5% (IQR 3.5–5%), compared with a median absolute mortality reduction used in sample size calculations of 5% (IQR 3.6–10%) (P = 0.27).ConclusionsFor some of the largest ongoing critical care trials, many clinicians regard prior probabilities as low and consider that plausible effects on absolute mortality are less than 5%. Further work is needed to determine whether pooled estimates obtained by surveying clinicians are replicable and accurate or whether other methods of estimating prior probability are preferred.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1726-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect sizes in ongoing randomized controlled critical care trials

et al. 2017

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“…According to Hayek [46], markets are mechanisms for collecting vast amounts of information held by individuals and synthesizing it into a useful data point [46,47], e.g., price of the stock market index dependent on time. Conversely, consolidation of knowledge is done via prices and arbitrageurs (Taleb on Hayek).…”

Section: Relaxation Phenomena In Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the market dynamics is believed to be formed by a crowd (herd) behavior of many interacting agents, there are ongoing attempts to create empirical, binary-type prediction markets functioning on such principle, or mini Wall Streets [47]. Prediction markets often work pretty well, however there are many cases when they give wrong prediction or do not make any predictions at all.…”

Section: Relaxation Phenomena In Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In our understanding, such breakdowns amount to breaking of time-translation invariance. Restoration of the time-translation invariance-in theory-may be attributed to a small proportion of the traders having either superior information or market intellect [47]. Data from a survey conducted with high income and institutional investors show that they "generally exaggerated assessments of the risk of a stock market crash, and that these assessments are influenced by the news stories, especially front page stories, that they read" [51].…”

Section: Relaxation Phenomena In Time Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The procedure embodied in (47), leads to a radical reduction of the set of r-predictors to just a few. Set of predictors and corresponding to each multiplier, define the probabilistic, poor man's order book.…”

Section: Optimization Approximants Multipliersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear Approximations to Critical and Relaxation Processes

Gluzman¹

2020

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We develop nonlinear approximations to critical and relaxation phenomena, complemented by the optimization procedures. In the first part, we discuss general methods for calculation of critical indices and amplitudes from the perturbative expansions. Several important examples of the Stokes flow through 2D channels are brought up. Power series for the permeability derived for small values of amplitude are employed for calculation of various critical exponents in the regime of large amplitudes. Special nonlinear approximations valid for arbitrary values of the wave amplitude are derived from the expansions. In the second part, the technique developed for critical phenomena is applied to relaxation phenomena. The concept of time-translation invariance is discussed, and its spontaneous violation and restoration considered. Emerging probabilistic patterns correspond to a local breakdown of time-translation invariance. Their evolution leads to the time-translation invariance complete (or partial) restoration. We estimate the typical time extent, amplitude and direction for such a restorative process. The new technique is based on explicit introduction of origin in time as an optimization parameter. After some transformations, we arrive at the exponential and generalized exponential-type solutions (Gompertz approximants), with explicit finite time scale, which is only implicit in the initial parameterization with polynomial approximation. The concept of crash as a fast relaxation phenomenon, consisting of time-translation invariance breaking and restoration, is advanced. Several COVID-related crashes in the time series for Shanghai Composite and Dow Jones Industrial are discussed as an illustration.

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Toward Understanding of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand for Human Social Structures/Markets

Szuba

2022

Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems

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The power of prediction markets

Cited by 13 publications

References 9 publications

Effect sizes in ongoing randomized controlled critical care trials

Effect sizes in ongoing randomized controlled critical care trials

Nonlinear Approximations to Critical and Relaxation Processes

Toward Understanding of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand for Human Social Structures/Markets

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