The Predictability Index: A Novel Project Performance Metric to Assess the Early Prediction of Cost and Time Outcomes

Grau, David; Back, W. Edward; Abbaszadegan, Amin; Sirven, Rick

doi:10.1061/9780784413517.234

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…In a study by Charette (1989), predictability is considered as the third dimension of risk assessment. In Grau et al. 's (2014) paper, a predictability index is developed to estimate performance predictability.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the predictability and preventability of conflicts between construction project parties

Charkhakan

Heravi

2022

ECAM

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PurposeAlthough several studies have aimed to present models to predict conflict outcomes, fewer methods have been developed to analyze conflict manageability and provide management strategies based on prediction models. This research pitches into the manageability analysis of conflicts occur during the implementation of a proposed change in construction projects. In this way, a framework has been developed by defining two parameters: the predictability index and the preventability index.Design/methodology/approachWithin this framework, the predictability index determines how many outcomes of the prediction model can be used for conflict management based on the degree of clarity. The preventability index demonstrates how preventive measures for conflict management can be identified. Eventually, three preventive measures can be determined: (1) identifying weaknesses of decision-making patterns and organizational culture, (2) identifying events that may be prevented using soft skills and (3) identifying differences among similar change-implementation scenarios and evaluating causes of the differences. To demonstrate the capabilities of proposed framework, a practical example has been analyzed.FindingsThe results show that the behavior of the project parties can be psychologically analyzed, and psychological conflicts can be distinguished from technical conflicts. Moreover, identifying the weaknesses of parties' decision-making patterns and their organizational culture is the most effective measure to prevent the conflicts.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the construction body of knowledge by quantifying the predictability and preventability of conflicts between the project parties in a construction project based on: (1) the certainty level of the conflict occurrence and (2) the level of alignment between predicted outcomes of the conflict occurrence and the issued change request and/or change order.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the predictability and preventability of conflicts between construction project parties

Charkhakan

Heravi

2022

ECAM

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“…In Nigeria, the industry accounts for 60% of all capital investments and generates more than ₦4.53 billion in GDP (Aje, Odusami and Ogunsemi, 2009;Uwandu, 2017). The construction sector has historically played a significant role in the economic and social growth of many countries, and whatever happens to the industry will have an impact on other industries and, ultimately, the country's wealth (David, Edward, Amin and Rick, 2014). The contribution of the construction subsector in Nigeria has dwindled and resulted to several uncompleted building construction projects, frequent building collapse, poorly constructed roads and conflict among project stakeholders.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Performance Model for Building Construction Projects in Higher Institutions, Southwest Nigeria

Ijigah¹,

Ojo²,

Lawal³

et al. 2023

LAUJOCES

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Performance of construction projects is a crucial driver of economic growth and infrastructural development in Nigeria, but there is still a need for a tool that can accurately analyze construction project performance from the design stage through construction and completion. This study developed a performance model for building construction projects in higher institutions, Southwest Nigeria. Literature was reviewed to identify the previous performance measurement parameters and were classified into sixteen by pilot survey. Qualitative research approach was adopted and a structured questionnaire was administered to 394 project stakeholders and 297 (75.38%) were retrieved from respondents. Mean Score, Kuskal wallis test, analysis of variance and least significant difference post hoc test was used to determine the convergence and divergent views of the stakeholders. Factor analysis as data reduction method via principal component extraction was used to classify project performance into five categories. The study’s findings indicate that client satisfaction with the project (MS = 3.833), Construction time predictability (MS = 3.845) and construction cost predictability (MS = 3.832) were ranked as the top three performance index. From the result of the reliability analysis, project performance was loaded into five (5) integrated factors; construction management, stakeholder management, quality, cost and time performance indicators. It is hereby recommended that client satisfaction, accurate time estimate and good cost forecast should be considered when executing building construction projects to enhance performance. It is also recommended that attention should be given to the five integrated performance indices during construction of building projects to improve performance..

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“…In reality, the capability to reliably predict time and cost outcomes at completion early, as opposed to late, in the project delivery process is critical for owner and contractor organizations in an industry characterized by recurring cost and schedule deviations (Payne 1995;Flyvbjerg et al 2002;Isidore and Back 2002;Bordat et al 2004;McKenna et al 2006;Liu et al, 2013;Kim and Reinschmidt 2011;Orberlender and Trost 2001;Grau et al 2014). The weight of such deviations is often "not only by a few percent but by several factors" (Flyvbjerg 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project Validation – a Novel Practice to Improve Value and Project Performance

Grau¹,

Cruz-Rios²,

Sherman³

2019

Proc. 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC)

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The study presented in this article investigates the practice of validation, which is not supported by the current literature. In this study, data was collected from subject matter experts through phone interviews. A multiple case study method was leveraged to characterize validation through the analysis of empirical data from remarkable project validation efforts. Project validation aims at proving or disproving with limited or no design whether the team can deliver a project that satisfies the owner's business case and scope within the owner's allowable constraints of cost and schedule and with an acceptable level of risk. During validation, multidisciplinary innovation clusters within the team investigate, compare, and propose distinct options for major project components, and enable the team to collaboratively select an option for the conceptual estimate without committing to the design of such option. Exploring solutions with a multidisciplinary lens without committing to their design enables the team, later on during design, to make decisions on solutions that ensure the cumulative impact of such solutions and further increase value to the owner. Validation culminates in a go/no-go decision, is undertaken following the business case and precedes the contractual agreement, and must have a dedicated budget, schedule, and project team. This article characterizes what validation is, when it is performed, how it should be implemented, and its benefits. Lessons learned are also discussed. When properly implemented, subject matter experts express that validation virtually eliminates cost and schedule deviations.

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The Predictability Index: A Novel Project Performance Metric to Assess the Early Prediction of Cost and Time Outcomes

Cited by 11 publications

References 8 publications

Quantifying the predictability and preventability of conflicts between construction project parties

Quantifying the predictability and preventability of conflicts between construction project parties

Integrated Performance Model for Building Construction Projects in Higher Institutions, Southwest Nigeria

Project Validation – a Novel Practice to Improve Value and Project Performance

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