The prediction of Chongqing's GDP based on the LASSO method and chaotic whale group algorithm–back propagation neural network–ARIMA model

Abstract

Accurate GDP forecasts are vital for strategic decision-making and effective macroeconomic policies. In this study, we propose an innovative approach for Chongqing's GDP prediction, combining the LASSO method with the CWOA—BP–ARIMA model. Through meticulous feature selection based on Pearson correlation and Lasso regression, we identify key economic indicators linked to Chongqing's GDP. These indicators serve as inputs for the optimized CWOA–BP–ARIMA model, demonstrating its superiority over Random Forest, MLP, GA–BP, and CWOA–BP models. The CWOA–BP–ARIMA model achieves a remarkable 95% reduction in MAE and a significant 94.2% reduction in RMSE compared to Random Forest. Furthermore, it shows substantial reductions of 80.6% in MAE and 77.8% in RMSE compared to MLP, along with considerable reductions of 77.3% in MAE and 75% in RMSE compared to GA–BP. Moreover, compared to its own CWOA–BP counterpart, the model attains an impressive 30.7% reduction in MAE and a 20.46% reduction in RMSE. These results underscore the model's predictive accuracy and robustness, establishing it as a reliable tool for economic planning and decision-making. Additionally, our study calculates GDP prediction intervals at different confidence levels, further enhancing forecasting accuracy. The research uncovers a close relationship between GDP and key indicators, providing valuable insights for policy formulation. Based on the predictions, Chongqing's GDP is projected to experience positive growth, reaching 298,880 thousand yuan in 2022, 322,990 thousand yuan in 2023, and 342,730 thousand yuan in 2024. These projections equip decision-makers with essential information to formulate effective policies aligned with economic trends. Overall, our study provides valuable knowledge and tools for strategic decision-making and macroeconomic policy formulation, showcasing the exceptional performance of the CWOA–BP–ARIMA model in GDP prediction.