The predictive validity of entrance scores and short-term performance for long-term success in engineering education

Abstract

PurposeThis study examined predictors of cumulative grade point average (GPA) from entrance scores and successive performance during students' academic work in university engineering programs.Design/methodology/approachScores from high school coursework, the General Ability Test and the Achievement Test were examined to determine if these factors and annual successive GPAs were predictors of long-term GPA. The sample consisted of 2,031 students registered in university engineering programs during the 2013–2019 period.FindingsCorrelations were significant between entrance scores and the preparatory year GPA but not with cumulative GPA. Also, correlations were significant between year-1 GPA to year-3 GPA and the graduation GPA. Adjacent year GPA is the better predictor of later GPA. More importantly, GPA at the time of graduation is well predicted by GPAs throughout years of study within engineering programs after controlling for entrance scores. Girls outperform boys in their entrance scores and GPAs. Hence, girls are likely to obtain higher cumulative GPAs.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of the study findings could help university faculty and administrators to understand the role of current entrance scores in predicting academic achievement of engineering students. In addition, the results could serve as a foundation to review weights of entrance scores for future developments and revisions. The findings of the study are limited to admission data for engineering students during the 2013–2019 period. Other disciplines may show a different pattern of relationships among the studied variables.Practical implicationsThe study findings have useful practical implications for admitting and monitoring student progress at engineering education programs. Results may help program curriculum development specialists and committees in designing admission criteria.Social implicationsAdministrators and faculty members are advised to consider entrance scores when providing counseling and monitoring throughout students' program-year progress. More attention should be devoted to university performance when interest is focused on later or graduation CGPA, with less emphasis on entrance scores.Originality/valueThe existed previous studies explored factors that influence the student performance in engineering programs. This study documents the role of admission criteria and successive GPAs in predicting the student graduation CGPA in engineering programs. Relationships between factors are crucial for engineering program revisions and policymaking.

Academic performance of engineering students: A predictive validity study of first‐year GPA and final‐year CGPA

“…The observed relationship between Grade Point Average and Cumulative Grade Point Average on the academic achievement of students was studied by Abdelfattah et al, 17 Abdulkadir and Ogwueleka, 19 Lawal et al, 20 Debaliz et al, 24 Almarabheh et al, 25 Oguntunde et al, 23 the researchers concluded that GPAs have a strong linear relationship with final year CGPA of students. We anticipate to have similar findings in this study.…”

“…Abdelfattah et al, 17 conducted a predictive validity study on entrance scores and short‐term performance for long‐term success in Engineering Education. The study examined the effect of high school coursework, general ability tests, and achievement tests on CGPA.…”

Composite Measures of Academic Performance: Insights from General Systems Performance Theory

“…Interestingly, GPAs have not only been used as predictors of success, but also as outcome measures; e.g., measures of academic success in higher education 8,9 . It is argued that this further conflicts attempts to develop predictive models of success.…”