The Preparatory Process of the 2023 Mw 7.8 Turkey Earthquake

Picozzi, Matteo; Iaccarino, Antonio Giovanni

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2619572/v1

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Whatever the reason for lack of robust precursors is, until now, the consequence is that no reliable models to predict earthquakes exist. Despite the existence of preparatory processes is still on debate, considering the breakthrough implication derived from their comprehension, the preparatory phase of large earthquakes became the topic of numerous studies (Bouchon et al., 2013; Cabrera et al., 2022; Ellsworth & Beroza, 1995; Kanamori, 1981; Kato & Ben‐Zion, 2020; Mignan, 2012; Picozzi, Iaccarino, & Spallarossa, 2023; Picozzi, Iaccarino, Spallarossa, & Bindi, 2023; Picozzi, Spallarossa, Iaccarino, et al., 2022; Shelly, 2020; Shi et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers (California) Using K‐Means Clustering

Iaccarino,

Picozzi

2023

JGR Solid Earth

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The generation of strong earthquakes is a long‐debated problem in seismology, and its importance is increased by the possible implications for earthquake forecasting. It is hypothesized that the earthquake generation processes are anticipated by several phenomena occurring within a nucleation region. These phenomena, also defined as preparatory processes, load stress on the fault leading it to reach a critical state. In this paper, we investigate the seismicity preceding 19 moderate (Mw ≥ 3.5) earthquakes at The Geysers, Northern California, aiming to verify the existence of a preparatory phase before their occurrence. We apply an unsupervised K‐means clustering technique to analyze time series of physics‐related features extracted from catalog information and estimated for events occurred before the mainshocks. Specifically, we study the temporal evolution of the b‐value from the Gutenberg‐Richter (b), the magnitude of completeness (Mc), the fractal dimension (Dc), the inter‐event time (dt), and the moment rate (). Our analysis shows that out of 19 moderate magnitude events considered, a common preparatory phase for 11 events is clearly identified, plus other five events for which we can guess a preparatory phase but with different characteristics from the previous ones. The latter result confirms that even within the same tectonic context different possible activation behaviors may exist. The duration of the preparatory process ranges between about 16 hr and 4 days. We observe that also for the retrieved preparatory process a decrease in b, Mc, and Dc, and an increase of . Finally, we show a clear correlation between events with a preparation phase and the location of injection's wells, suggesting an important role of fluids in the preparatory process.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers (California) Using K‐Means Clustering

Iaccarino,

Picozzi

2023

JGR Solid Earth

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Zaccagnino et al (2023) discovered globally clustered, locally Poissonian seismicity and low b-values in the EAFZ region prior to the earthquake doublet. Picozzi and Iaccarino (2023) employed seismic activity analysis to reveal the gradual migration of earthquake frequency and average energy toward the future epicenter within a 300 km radius for the 300 days leading up to the earthquake doublet. However, these studies were limited in their ability to comprehensively describe the seismic preparatory processes on a large spatial scale.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the Preparatory Processes of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet

Jiang,

Yin

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

On February 6, 2023, within a span of 9 hours, two significant earthquakes of Mw7.8 and Mw7.6 struck the southeastern region of Turkey and northern Syria, resulting in substantial loss of life and extensive economic damage. These strong events occurred in an area where multiple tectonic plates converge, characterized by a complex fault system, presenting significant challenges in understanding their preparatory processes. To investigate whether the preparatory process of the Mw7.8-7.6 earthquake doublet could be identified at a large spatial scale prior to its occurrence, we focused on the b-value, a parameter with clear physical meaning in the magnitude-frequency relationship. We examined the migration pattern of the relative background value difference Δb before the earthquakes. In our study, we employed a data-driven approach for b-value calculation and the Cumulative Migration Pattern (CMP) method to quantitatively measure the migration pattern. The results indicate an overall decrease in b-values in the study area prior to the main-shock occurrence, signifying an evident enhancement of crustal differential stress. Noticeably, distinct migration patterns emerged near the epicenters before the earthquakes, revealing the preparatory process of the Mw7.8-7.6 earthquake doublet and potentially aiding in identifying the location of rupture nucleation points. These findings are expected to provide valuable scientific insights for the prevention of similar destructive earthquakes in the future.

show abstract

Unraveling the Preparatory Processes of the 2023 Mw 7.8–7.6 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet

Yin,

Jiang

2024

Seismological Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Within a span of 9 hr on 6 February 2023, two significant earthquakes, with magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.6, struck the southeastern part of Türkiye and the northern region of Syria, resulting in significant casualties and widespread economic losses. The occurrence of such intense earthquakes in rapid succession on adjacent faults, especially within a highly complex intraplate region with a multifault network, poses a rare phenomenon, presenting new challenges for seismic hazard analysis in such areas. To investigate whether the preparatory processes for the Mw 7.8–7.6 earthquake doublet could be identified on a large spatial scale prior to the seismic events, we employed a data-driven approach for b-value calculation. The difference in b-values from the background values (Δb) in a reference period were used as inputs, and the cumulative migration pattern (CMP) method, quantitatively describing the migration of seismic activity, was utilized to calculate the corresponding probability distributions. The results indicate a widespread phenomenon of decreasing b-values in the study area over a decade before the occurrence of the earthquake doublet, revealing a significant enhancement of differential crustal stress over a large region. In addition, despite not being the region with the most pronounced decrease in b-values, there is a distinct high probability distribution of CMP near the nucleation points of the earthquake doublet, indicating a spatial and temporal “focus” of increased crustal differential stress in the study area, unveiling the preparatory process of the earthquake doublet. This study reveals quantifiable migration patterns over a long time scale and a large spatial extent, providing new insights into the evolution and occurrence processes of the 2023 Mw 7.8–7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet. Moreover, it offers potential clues for seismic hazard analysis in such intraplate regions with multiple fault systems.

show abstract

The Preparatory Process of the 2023 Mw 7.8 Turkey Earthquake

Cited by 5 publications

References 35 publications

Detecting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers (California) Using K‐Means Clustering

Detecting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers (California) Using K‐Means Clustering

Unraveling the Preparatory Processes of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet

Unraveling the Preparatory Processes of the 2023 Mw 7.8–7.6 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Doublet

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About