The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Abstract

SUMMARY. The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

Economic burden of hepatitis C in Egypt: the future impact of highly effective therapies

“…Previous analysis estimated approximately 65 000 HCV patients were treated with pegylated interferon in 2014 6, 19…”

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia

“…The BEAST skyline output for each data set was superimposed on data derived from the epidemiological model estimates derived using the previously published system dynamic modeling framework [20,21]. Comparison of the trends reveals considerable similarities with regard to the timing of the exponential increases in the effective population size with the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and the size of the HCV-infected population from epidemiological back-projections for both genotypes and continents (Figure 1).…”

“…Beta-PERT distributions were used to model uncertainty associated with all inputs. The model was simulated using a Monte-Carlo approach to determine the 95% uncertainty interval for prevalence [20,21]. The epidemiological estimates of HCV infection prevalence by age and sex [22][23][24] for the United States were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data between 1997 and 2007, and the number of patients with HCV infection cured antiviral therapy reported by publications between 1997 and 2007 [20].…”

“…A previously developed epidemiological model was applied to estimate the time course of changes in the incidence and prevalence of HCV infection [20,21]. The Markov model (implemented in Microsoft Excel [2013]) was used to predict the HCV-infected population and the disease progression from 1950 to 2012.…”

A hepatitis C-vírus-fertőzés és kezelésének költségvonzata

“…A 16 országra kiterjedő elemzés alapján az prognosztizálható, hogy Magyarországon akkor várható a fertőzöttek számának csökkenése (részben a sikeres kezelés, részben a halálozás eredményeként) az elkövetkező években, ha a fertőzött egyének felismerését szervezett szűrőprogram segíti. Ebben az esetben 2025 után számíthatunk a HCV miatti májcirrhosis, dekom-penzált májcirrhosis, HCC és mortalitás, valamint az ezekkel kapcsolatos egészségügyi ráfordítás csökkenésére [9].…”