The prevalence of asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 in a cohort of quarantined subjects

Al-Qahtani, Manaf; AlAli, Salman; Abdulrahman, Abdulkarim; Alsayyad, Adel Salman; Otoom, Sameer; Atkin, Stephen L.

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.091

Cited by 62 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…This proportion is also concordant to that reported in Spain (40.5%) by Albalate et al(99). The proportion of detected positive air travellers (83.6%) found in this review is higher than the 76.6% reported in Al-Qahtani et al(100) perhaps due to more awareness as the study was implemented at a much later date. Yanes-Lane reported an asymptomatic proportion of positive cases among care home residents (54%) just a little lower than the 60.2% reported in this review(101).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 77%

Mass Testing with Contact Tracing Compared to Test and Trace for Effective Suppression of COVID-19 in the UK: A rapid review

Mbwogge

2021

Preprint

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BackgroundMaking testing available to everyone and tracing contacts might be the gold standard towards the control of COVID-19, particularly when significant transmissions are without symptoms. This study evaluated the effectiveness of mass testing and contact tracing in the suppression of COVID-19 compared to conventional Test and Trace in the UK.DesignA rapid review of available evidencePrimary research questionIs there evidence that mass testing and tracing could suppress community spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections better than Test and Trace?Secondary research questionWhat is the proportion of asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 reported during mass testing interventions?MethodsLiterature was searched in September through December 2020 in Google Scholar, ScienceDirect, Mendeley and PubMed.ResultsLiterature search yielded 286 articles from Google Scholar, 20 from Science Direct, 14 from Mendeley, 27 from Pubmed and 15 through manual search. Altogether 35 articles were included, making a sample size of close to a million participants.ConclusionThere was a very low level but promising evidence of 76.9% (95% CI: 46.2 – 95.0, P=0.09) majority vote in favour of the intervention under the primary objective. The overall proportion of asymptomatic cases among those tested positive and tested sample populations under the secondary objective was 40.7% (95% CI: 38.8– 42.5) and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.01 – 0.012) respectively. Conventional test and trace should be superseded by a decentralised and regular mass rapid testing and contact tracing, championed by GP surgeries and low cost community services.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 77%

Mass Testing with Contact Tracing Compared to Test and Trace for Effective Suppression of COVID-19 in the UK: A rapid review

Mbwogge

2021

Preprint

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“…Duration of the latency period, after infection and before symptoms are developed, has been estimated in about

5

days (see for example Li et al, 2020 and Kai-Wang et al, 2020 ), so that

. The fraction of asymptomatic is also quite problematic, with estimates ranging from 15% to 80%; as it is likely that a proportion of asymptomatic is missed from the testing, we take a recently reported high value of

, Al-Qahtani et al (2020) . Similarly, the average recovery period is about

7

days, for mild cases ( Byrne et al, 2020 ), suggesting

for the recovery rate of an asymptomatic; in general, more severe cases worsen after about

7

days, requiring hospitalization, which completely excludes them from the possibility of transmission: for this reason, we also use the same value of

for moving these cases from the infected to recovered, where most of them eventually will be; one fraction eventually dies, with the rate discussed now.…”

Section: Epidemic Parameters Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model

Aspri

Beretta

Gandolfi

et al. 2021

Journal of Mathematical Economics

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We extend the classic approach (SIR) to a SEAIRD model with policy controls. A social planner’s objective reflects the trade-off between mortality reduction and GDP, featuring its perception of the value of statistical life (PVSL). We introduce realistic and drastic limitations to the control available to it. Within this setup, we explore the results of various control policies. We notably describe the joint dynamics of infection and economy in different contexts with unique or multiple confinement episodes. Compared to other approaches, our contributions are: (i) to restrict the class of functions accessible to the social planner, and in particular to impose that they remain constant over some fixed periods; (ii) to impose implementation frictions, e.g. a lag in their implementation; (iii) to prove the existence of optimal strategies within this set of possible controls; iv) to exhibit a sudden change in optimal policy as the statistical value of life is raised, from laissez-faire to a sizeable lockdown level, indicating a possible reason for conflicting policy proposals.

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“…The proportion of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections that have been reported as asymptomatic ranges from 36%-49% [1][2][3][4] ; in India 94% of a random population sample who had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 reported having had no symptoms 5 . Symptoms are more common with increasing age and therefore the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic differs with the age-structure of each population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in two Kenyan referral hospitals

Lucinde

Mugo

Bottomley

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The high proportion of asymptomatic and undetected SARS-CoV-2 infections presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and implementing control measures in Kenya. We determined the prevalence of IgG to SARS-CoV-2 in residual blood samples from mothers attending antenatal care services at 2 referral hospitals in Kenya. A total of 196 samples were analysed from Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi in August 2020, seroprevalence, adjusted for assay sensitivity and specificity, was 49.8% (95% CI 42.0-57.8). In Kilifi County Hospital in coastal Kenya, 419 samples were analysed between September and November 2020, seroprevalence, adjusted for assay sensitivity and specificity, increased from 1.3% (95% CI 0.03-4.8) in September to 10.9% (95% CI 6.1, 16.8) in November 2020. There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in parts of Nairobi and Kilifi Counties.

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The prevalence of asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 in a cohort of quarantined subjects

Cited by 62 publications

References 13 publications

Mass Testing with Contact Tracing Compared to Test and Trace for Effective Suppression of COVID-19 in the UK: A rapid review

Mass Testing with Contact Tracing Compared to Test and Trace for Effective Suppression of COVID-19 in the UK: A rapid review

Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in two Kenyan referral hospitals

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