The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David B.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Pound, Matthew J.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Robinson, Marci M.; Chandler, Mark A.; Foley, Kevin M.; Haywood, Alan M.

doi:10.5194/cp-12-1519-2016

Cited by 239 publications

(359 citation statements)

References 133 publications

(166 reference statements)

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“…decreases in both mean SST [estimated mean Pliocene−Recent difference for California: 2.1°C; for Virginia: 2.9°C (18,20)] and diversities; regional extinctions have also been documented on both coasts, although their direct connection to climate change is debated and other factors may also have been involved (20,(23)(24)(25)29). Consistent with the previous work cited above (e.g., refs.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…By focusing on the Pliocene bivalves in the two bestsampled temperate regions along each coast [California and the Carolinas−Virginia region (hereafter termed Virginia), both at ∼32°N-40°N], living at a time when extratropical temperatures were warmer and latitudinal temperature gradients gentler than today (18)(19)(20), we can begin to tease apart the complex roles of regional extinction and range expansion in shaping present-day patterns of species richness (hereafter termed diversity). For comparison, we summarized modern diversity within the same latitudinal bins, rather than using the natural provincial boundaries, to assess local extinctions from Pliocene to Recent.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

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Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

Huang

Roy

Valentine

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Paleontological data provide essential insights into the processes shaping the spatial distribution of present-day biodiversity. Here, we combine biogeographic data with the fossil record to investigate the roles of parallelism (similar diversities reached via changes from similar starting points), convergence (similar diversities reached from different starting points), and divergence in shaping the present-day latitudinal diversity gradients of marine bivalves along the two North American coasts. Although both faunas show the expected overall poleward decline in species richness, the trends differ between the coasts, and the discrepancies are not explained simply by present-day temperature differences. Instead, the fossil record indicates that both coasts have declined in overall diversity over the past 3 My, but the western Atlantic fauna suffered more severe Pliocene−Pleistocene extinction than did the eastern Pacific. Tropical western Atlantic diversity remains lower than the eastern Pacific, but warm temperate western Atlantic diversity recovered to exceed that of the temperate eastern Pacific, either through immigration or in situ origination. At the clade level, bivalve families shared by the two coasts followed a variety of paths toward today's diversities. The drivers of these lineage-level differences remain unclear, but species with broad geographic ranges during the Pliocene were more likely than geographically restricted species to persist in the temperate zone, suggesting that past differences in geographic range sizes among clades may underlie between-coast contrasts. More detailed comparative work on regional extinction intensities and selectivities, and subsequent recoveries (by in situ speciation or immigration), is needed to better understand present-day diversity patterns and model future changes.B iodiversity is spatially structured at many scales. Biogeographic realms and provinces, the partitioning of species among environments within biogeographic units, and genetic population structure within species are all manifestations of the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate and maintain diversity in terrestrial and marine systems. For most terrestrial and marine organisms, the first-order global diversity pattern is the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG): the increase in the number of species and higher taxa from the poles to the tropics (1). This gradient, as seen today, has been shaped by a combination of origination, extinction, and past geographic shifts of taxa; all of these variables might differ among clades, functional groups, and land masses or ocean basins (2-7), even when the overall LDG is similar. Thus, a mechanistic understanding of the present-day LDG in general, and along specific equator−pole transects, for distinctive regional faunas, and for individual clades, cannot be divorced from its history.The need for historical data is underscored by the differences and similarities among related clades that broadly conform to the LDG. As in many evolutionary question...

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

Huang

Roy

Valentine

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Figure 11 shows comparison of simulated SST and PRISM3D proxy-based SST reconstruction during the Pliocene . Note that the PRISM4 SST reconstruction is not updated (Dowsett et al, 2016) since PRISM3D. The SST reconstruction is characterized as extremely high SST in the North Atlantic high latitude, low-to-mid-latitude warming gradient (limited change in the tropics and warming in the middle latitude, respectively), and remarkable warming in mid-latitude coastal areas (off the west coast of North America and South America, and off the east coast of the Eurasian Continent; Dowsett et al, 2009Dowsett et al, , 2013.…”

Section: Data-model Comparison Of Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the PRISM3D/PlioMIP1, newly archived proxy evidences have been integrated as PRISM4 dataset (Dowsett et al, 2016;hereafter D16) which is planned to be used for an ongoing modelling intercomparison project, PlioMIP phase 2 (PlioMIP2; Haywood et al, 2016b; hereafter H16b), a part project of PMIP4 (Kageyama et al, 2016). In the PRISM4/PlioMIP2, boundary conditions for the Pliocene climate simulations including orography and ice sheets have been updated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

2016

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Abstract. Accumulations of global proxy data are essential steps for improving reliability of climate model simulations for the Pliocene warming climate. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), a part project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4, boundary forcing data have been updated from the PlioMIP phase 1 due to recent advances in understanding of oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric aspects of the Pliocene palaeoenvironment. In this study, sensitivities of Pliocene climate simulations to the newly archived boundary conditions are evaluated by a set of simulations using an atmosphereocean coupled general circulation model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The simulated Pliocene climate is warmer than pre-industrial conditions for 2.4 • C in global mean, corresponding to 0.6 • C warmer than the PlioMIP1 simulation by the identical climate model. Revised orography, lakes, and shrunk ice sheets compared with the PlioMIP1 lead to local and remote influences including snow and sea ice albedo feedback, and poleward heat transport due to the atmosphere and ocean that result in additional warming over middle and high latitudes. The amplified higher-latitude warming is supported qualitatively by the proxy evidences, but is still underestimated quantitatively. Physical processes responsible for the global and regional climate changes should be further addressed in future studies under systematic intermodel and data-model comparison frameworks.

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“…This period of the late Pliocene was selected because it has been extensively studied as part of a number of projects (e.g. PRISM; Dowsett et al, 2016;Dowsett, 2007, PlioMIP;Haywood et al, 2010Haywood et al, , 2016, represents the warm phase of climate (interglacial conditions) and does not include major glaciations -though the M2 cooling event may persist to the very start of the simulation at 3300 kyr BP, and the simulated period does include periods of likely glaciation, such as KM2 (∼ 3100 kyr BP) and G20 (∼ 3000 kyr BP). The emulator would not be appropriate for periods of extensive glaciation and may not be well-matched to the periods of lesser glaciation included within the simulated interval.…”

Section: Time Series Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel longterm "continuous" projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature -SAT), comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years) (by modelling SAT and precipitation). A range of CO 2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO 2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO 2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next 200 kyr into the future, we find that SAT oscillations appear to be primarily influenced by obliquity for the first ∼ 120 kyr, whilst eccentricity is relatively low, after which precession plays a more dominant role. Conversely, variations in precipitation over the entire period demonstrate a strong precessional signal. Overall, we find that the emulator provides a useful and powerful tool for rapidly simulating the long-term evolution of climate, both past and future, due to its relatively high spatial resolution and relatively low computational cost. However, there are uncertainties associated with the approach used, including the inability of the emulaPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1540 N. S. Lord et al.: Emulation of long-term changes in global climate tor to capture deviations from a quasi-stationary response to the forcing, such as transient adjustments of the deep-ocean temperature and circulation, in addition to its limited range of fixed ice sheet configurations and its requirement for prescribed atmos...

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The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Cited by 239 publications

References 133 publications

Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

Convergence, divergence, and parallelism in marine biodiversity trends: Integrating present-day and fossil data

Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

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