The Problem of Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes Within the Transcarpathian Inner Depression of the Carpathian Region of Ukraine

Shtohryn, Liudmyla; Kasiyanchuk, D.; Kuzmenko, E.

doi:10.26471/cjees/2020/015/118

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The geological, tectonic, and geomorphological structure are known to be constant factors in the development of landslide processes [Kasiyanchuk et al, Davybida et al, 2018;Shtohryn et al, 2021], as well as the seismic regime of the area and hydrogeological conditions. According to the scheme of regional-zonal engineering-geological zoning by Klymchuk et al, [2008], most of the territory of the Chernivtsi region belongs to the Carpathian mountain-fold system (Ж) [Ponomar, 1969], within which a significant area is occupied by the Preсarpathian depression (Figure 1).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

Hablovskyi¹,

Hablovska²,

Shtohryn³

et al. 2023

J. Ecol. Eng.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The purpose of this publication was the long-term forecasting of the landslide processes activation for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region, taking into account the complex effect of natural factors. On the basis of statistical analysis and processing of long-term observations of landslide activation and natural time factors in particular solar activity, seismicity, groundwater levels, precipitation and air temperature, the relationship was analysed, the main periods of landslide activation were determined, the contribution of each time factor to the complex probability indicator of landslide development was estimated and long-term forecasting was carried out. An analysis of the influence of geomorphology on the landslide development was performed by using GIS MapІnfo. By means of cross-correlation, Fourier spectral analysis, the periodicities were analysed and the relationships between the parameters were established. It was found that the energy of earthquakes precedes the activation of landslides by 1 year, which indicates the "preparatory" effect of earthquakes as a factor that reduces the stability of rocks. The main periodicities of the forecast parameters of 9-11, 19-21, 28-31 years were highlighted, which are consistent with the rhythms of solar activity. The forecasting was carried out using artificial neural networks and the prediction function of the Mathematical package Mathcad, based on the received data, the activation of landslides is expected in 2023-2026, 2030-2035, 2040-2044 with some short periods of calm. The main periods of the dynamics of the time series of landslides and natural factors for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region were determined, and a long-term forecast of landslides was made. Taking into account the large areas of the spread of landslide processes, forecasting the likely activation is an important issue for this region, the constructed predictive time models make it possible to assess the danger of the geological environment for the purpose of early warning and making management decisions aimed at reducing the consequences of a natural disaster.

show abstract

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A long-standing temporal prediction is performed. Then, using the normalized Laplace function, the integral indicator was calculated into the value of the probability of landslide processes [Shtohryn et al, 2020] (3):…”

Section: Solar Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

Hablovskyi¹,

Hablovska²,

Shtohryn³

et al. 2023

J. Ecol. Eng.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Factor 2 shows the influence of relief on the development of landslides and is determined by the connection of the parameters "absolute mark" of the landslide "head", "angle of inclination of the daylight surface" of the landslide "head" and "distance to the river". The inverse correlation of the parameter "distance to the river" with the spread of landslides indicates that they develop far from rivers and not only under the influence of spatial conditions: geological, tectonic structure, lithological composition, type of relief, degree of destruction of the upper layer of rocks, but to a large extent, they are also caused by external influences -anomalous values of precipitation [Shtohryn et al, 2020]. As we can see, the geomorphological parameters have a much smaller share of the total dispersion (0.28), so their influence is not determining.…”

Section: Confinedness Of Landslide Processes To the Fault Zonesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geodynamics

Shtohryn¹

2021

JGD

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose. The aim of the research presented in this article is to analyze the features of the reflection of the damage to the territory of the Transcarpathian region by landslide processes based on the anomalies in the magnetic and gravitational fields, taking into account tectonic zoning. The study is an important stage in predicting the landslide processes and it is aimed at reducing their negative effects on the environment. The relevance of the research is due to the growing intensification of landslides in the Carpathian region of Ukraine. Methodology. The development of landslides in each structural-tectonic zone is associated with its tectonic structure, and therefore these processes can have different intensity, dynamics, tendencies for further development and distribution area. Lithological-facies composition and bedding conditions of rocks form the physical and mechanical properties of rocks, determining the rate and mechanism of the development of landslides. The spatial confinedness of landslide processes in the fault zones is reflected in the gravitational and magnetic fields. Results. With the help of GIS MapInfo tools, a number of landslides in each tectonic zone, anomalies in the gravitational and magnetic fields, areas affected by landslides, the distance to the fault zones were calculated. The important result of the research is to prove a direct correlation between the spatial distribution of landslides and fault zones, tectonic structure, the lithological composition of rocks, which are reflected in gravimagnetic anomalies. Scientific novelty. The peculiarities of the reflection of the tectonic structure, zones of decompression, fragmentation of rocks and lithological composition in gravimagnetic fields on a regional scale are examined, and their association with landslide processes is evaluated for the first time. Practical significance. The theoretical substantiation of the peculiarities of the behaviour of gravimagnetic fields in the zones of distribution of landslide processes makes it possible to assess the natural conditions for the formation and development of landslides in a given region. The connection between the impact of the fault zones on landslide processes by their reflection in gravimagnetic fields is established, which can be used in the future for spatial forecasting of the development of landslides in territories with related structural-tectonic conditions.

show abstract

Assessment of the Ecological Risks of Landslide Damages in the Carpathian Region

Resources

2021

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Problem of Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes Within the Transcarpathian Inner Depression of the Carpathian Region of Ukraine

Cited by 5 publications

References 4 publications

The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

Geodynamics

Assessment of the Ecological Risks of Landslide Damages in the Carpathian Region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About